Sitting here watching a 40-minute radar loop from the Jacksonville Doppler, even though the last advisory indicated that Fay was still pretty much stalled, I detect indications now that she is beginning a very slow track westward. The main center is still offshore, but the center is NE of Daytona Beach.
ADDITIONAL RAIN REPORTS
4.05 Avon Park
5.33 Lake Wales
11.55 Cape Canaveral
4.02 Orlando/Sanford Airport
6.15 Melbourne NWS
5.18 Palm Bay
Remember, these are not storm totals, just the additional amounts for the 24 hours ending earlier this morning. We will try to work up a storm total list later. After this lady is long gone, I think we will be astounded at some of the rain totals. Over 2 feet of rain has fallen in areas of East/Central Florida.
SPOT REPORTS AT MIDDAY
Pensacola…sunny, wind NE 6
Destin…mostly sunny, north 8
Panama City…partly sunny, NE 12
Tallahassee…cloudy, north 12, gusts 17
Mayport Naval Air Station…heavy rain, NE 31, gusts 41
Jacksonville…steady rain, NE 25, gusts 37
Jacksonville/Craig Field…heavy rain, NE 20, gusts 31
St. Augustine…cloudy, NE 35, gusts 40
Sanford…heavy rain, west 26, gusts 39
Orlando…steady rain, west 23, gusts 33
Daytona Beach…steady rain, west 20, gusts 28
Titusville…steady rain, SW 28, gusts 40
Melbourne…cloudy, SW 17, gusts 25 (They deserve a break.)
Data Buoy off east/central coast…south 34, gusts 42, 12-foot waves
Tampa…partly sunny, NW 16, gusts to 23 (They have had no real weather problems from Fay.)
INDIVIDUAL FORECASTS FOR COMMUNITIES THAT FAY BOTHERS
JACKSONVILLE
* Tropical Storm Wind Warning until 4:00 Friday
* Flood Watch through late Friday night
* Tropical Storm Warning in effect now
Widespread showes and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain for the rest of today. East wind 30 to 35 with gusts to 50. That type weather continues tonight and Friday with rain heavy at times. The peak wind will be more like 30 mph later Friday.
TALLAHASSEE
* Flood Watch from late tonight through Saturday evening
Showers and thunderstorms will increase later today with north wind 15 to 20 and gusty. Showers adn storms tonight will produce locally heavy rain after midnight with NW wind 15 to 20 and gusty. Lot of showers and thunderstorms Friday with rain heavy at times with north wind 20 to 25 and gusty, shifting to south in the afternoon (meaning that Fay will have moved west of the city at that time). Still a good chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday. Improving weather Sunday and Monday, but still some scattered storms.
PANAMA CITY
* Flood Watch from Friday evening all the way through Sunday evening
Some scattered storms this afternoon, but the main foul weather starts Friday when showers and storms will become numerous at times, especially in the afternoon and at night. Rain heavy at times. North winds during that time up to 25 mph, but stronger gusts. The outlook for the weekend is for a lot of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Saturday night and still some heavy rain. Still a good chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday, but not as stormy. Improving weather by Tuesday.
FT. WALTON / DESTIN
Only scattered showers and storms this afternoon and tonight. The main action wll be Friday night, Saturday, Saturday night and Sunday with showers and storms numerous at times and heavy amounts of rain. By Monday, there will still be quite a few showers and thunderstorms, but not so stormy. Improving weather early next week, but still a risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms even into next Wednesday.
PENSACOLA / ORANGE BEACH / GULF SHORES
Not much going on until scattered showers and thunderstorms increase some Friday afternoon. However, the main event for those three locations will be Friday night all the way through Sunday. During that time, showers and storms will be numerous with heavy amounts of rain. Even on Monday there is a good chance of showers and storms, but decreasing on Tuesday. In all three of these locations, there will be strong north winds at times.
MONTGOMERY
A good chance of showers and storms by Friday. Those will continue Friday night, Saturday and Sunday. Rain heavy at times and brisk winds, although not real strong winds. The number of showers and storms will decrease by Monday and Tuesday.
OVERALL EFFECTS
In all of these locations near the coast, we can never totally rule out the possibility of a spin-off tornado when bands of thunderstorms will be circulating in from the Gulf. However, since Fay will be down to a tropical depression across North and NW Florida and extreme SW Alabama, that threat should be minimal.
ALABAMA
Unless things chance, the heaviest rain in Alabama should be mainly over the south half where some of the guidance indicates 7 to 9 inches to be the storm total. Across the north/central part of the state, it will be more like 1 to 3 inches.
TRACK FORECAST
Please scroll down ot an earlier post to actually see the latest official track forecast, but in a nutshell, Tropical Storm Fay will move WNW across the extreme north part of the Florida Peninsula, then across the southern fringe of the Florida Panhandle (including near Apalacicola, Valpraiso, Ft. Walton, Panama City, Destin and Pensacola to the general area of Mobile by early Sunday mornng and then to near Laurel and Hattiesburg, Mississippi by daybreak Monday and to near Jackson, Mississippi by daybreak Tuesday). It will be classed as a tropical depression soon after getting west of the Tallahassee area. However, a tropcial depression can still dump buckets and tubs of rains.
It is going to be a busy time in the weather office all the way through the weekend. Stay tuned for a lot of information on this weather blog.
