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All weather parameters are still pointing to a good potential for a drought busting rain for Alabama in coming days. The NAM is printing 1.68″ for Birmingham during the next 84 hours (and this rain event should last longer than that), while the GFS is at 1.52″ though 60 hours. I think there is a good chance that most communities across North-Central Alabama will receive 2 to 5 inches of rain, with isolated amounts to 7 inches. Remember, some of the best rain bands associated with tropical storms can be far removed from the center, especially in this case on the north and east side.
TO THE SOUTH: Amounts of 5 to 10 inches are likely closer to the coast, and flood watches are up for much of South Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. The QPF graphic from HPC (see the Weather Xtreme video) suggests a bullseye of 16 inches near Atmore and Evergreen. Needless to say, someone in Alabama will be dealing with flooding issues before this winds down.
I guess you can’t totally rule out a few isolated tornadoes, but heavy rain will be the big story.
NEXT WEEK: The NHC track still has Fay southwest of here Wednesday morning; I think the GFS and the ECMWF solution is best; it hints the big rains from Fay will be winding down Tuesday night, with only a few lingering showers on Wednesday. But, knowing Fay’s bizarre behavior, you sure can’t rule out anything at this stage of the game.
BOTTOM LINE: For North-Central Alabama, scattered showers and storms will become more numerous tomorrow (not a wash-out), but then we get very wet tomorrow night, Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday with periods of rain and a few thunderstorms. The rain will be heavy at times. Daytime temperatures might not get out of the 70s on one or more of these days due to clouds and rain.
Breezy conditions will continue, with speeds generally in the 12 to 25 mph range here, and 20 to 40 mph down the coast. Widespread power outages are not expected.
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We will keep the blog updated through the weekend with the latest on Fay… Brian Peters will have the Weather Xtreme video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Stay tuned!
