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SHORT TERM: Fay is beginning to move, and the center this morning is near Tuscaloosa. Tropical downpours continue this morning over East Alabama, and additional showers and storms will form during the day statewide, but generally speaking, the flood and tornado risk will be shifting east, into Georgia and parts of the Carolinas as the center of Fay continue a slow move to the northeast up I-59. Bottom line is that today won’t be nearly as wild as yesterday, and the rain amounts will be lighter, expect perhaps the far eastern part of the state.
It will be very interesting to see the final storm totals from Fay; I am pretty sure we will have some neighborhoods that will be in the 7 to 10 inch range; we already have reports of storm totals over 8 inches in spots. Once the rain is over tonight, the great Alabama weather legend J.B. Elliott will get out his calculator and come up with some storm totals from our Skywatchers and the official sites around the state.
DRIER DAYS AHEAD: The GFS looks bone dry tomorrow, but the NAM hints a few scattered showers and storms will linger. We figure there will be decent amount of residual moisture, so we will keep the mention of showers in the forecast, but they should be very scattered. And, Thursday and Friday do look dry with hotter afternoons; we will up in the low 90s on these days (this is August, you know).
LABOR DAY WEEKEND: The 00Z GFS sure looks dry for Saturday and Sunday; so we will roll with that idea and mention just a small risk of a shower. Showers might be a tad more numerous Monday… when all eyes will be on the Gulf of Mexico as we have the potential for a major hurricane down there. But, if you have a beach trip planned, Gustav should not be a factor until after Labor Day.
WHAT ABOUT GUSTAV? The system was upgraded to a hurricane this morning, and the models have shifted south (as has the NHC track). Watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics associated with this storm. Gustav is expected to be moving through the Yucatan Channel, into the Gulf of Mexico late in the holiday weekend. The GFDL ramps it up into a major hurricane south of the Mississippi coast early next week.
The ECMWF places Gustav in the eastern Gulf Monday, and the GFS does show a weakness in the ridge to the north, meaning a threat to either the central or eastern Gulf coast if the models are correct. Everybody will have a landfall guess, but nobody knows where this is going to wind up now. We must wait, and watch. Interests along the Gulf Coast from Morgan City, Louisiana all the way down to Key West will need to be watching as well.
HANNA? Another wave in the Atlantic, well north of Puerto Rico, looks good this morning, and could become Tropical Storm Hanna in coming days. This won’t be a Gulf storm, and it is too early to determine if this will be a threat to the east coast of the U.S., or a recurving system that stays in the open Atlantic. Again, see the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics.
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I am headed up to Winfield for a speech this morning; should be back in the office by early afternoon, and the next Weather Xtreme video will be up by 3:30. Enjoy the day!
