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The lingering tropical showers over Alabama will end tonight, and the weather sure looks pretty dry for the next four days.
The NAM is now trending toward the dry GFS for tomorrow, so it looks like a partly sunny day with only a few widely scattered showers around. The warming trend begins as we rise into the mid to upper 80s. Thursday and Friday will be mostly sunny with hotter afternoons; we should be in the low 90s on both days.
LABOR DAY WEEKEND: The GFS continues to show a weak front to the north, stalling out somewhere around I-40 in Tennessee; this would leave Alabama in a rather benign weather pattern for the holiday weekend, with partly sunny days, fair nights, and just a few widely scattered showers or thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Afternoon highs will be very close to 90 degrees.
FAY: The circulation center is near Scottsboro this afternoon, and moving northeast. Fay will bring beneficial rain to the general area from Asheville, NC to Philadelphia, PA during the next 24 hours.
GUSTAV: Let the speculation begin. Watch the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics and model output associated with the storm. Gustav is forecast by NHC to be in the Gulf of Mexico Sunday morning as a significant hurricane.
While most of the models push it up into the Central Gulf, we note the ECMWF takes it west toward the coast of Mexico. We will have fun playing the “guess the landfall” game, but for emergency managers reading this; the entire length of the U.S. Gulf Coast can’t be ruled out as a landfall target at this early stage of the game. Climatology supports a movement toward the Central Gulf Coast; we will just have to wait and watch for steering current changes in coming days. Nobody knows the destination right now, and it doesn’t make sense for “gut feelings” here. Emergency planning is serious business, and can’t be dictated by a quiver in your liver. I think there will be reasonable skill in a preliminary landfall target here by Friday morning.
Fay was not really strong enough for major upwelling in the Northeast Gulf, but the water is a little cooler than values we saw 10 days ago; a quick check of some sea surface temperatures:
Apalachicola 85
Panama City 82
Dauphin Island 81
No doubt the warmest water is over the western part of the Gulf… where SSTs are generally in the upper 80s. As you can see, we have low to mid 80s around the central part of the Gulf Coast. That will support a hurricane, but for the major, category four and five type storms, you really need to see SSTs in the 84 to 89 (F) range.
No sign of any upper air features that would hamper development at this time over the Gulf. A very real chance Gustav could be a formidable hurricane as it approaches the coast.
BEACH TRIP PLANS: We still expect no problems from Gustav along the Gulf coast through Labor Day, but landfall could come as early as Tuesday night or Wednesday of next week. Nobody knows where this will go ashore, but a close watch is in order. We will have updates on Gustav frequently in coming days.
OTHER TROPICAL TIDBITS: Several other waves show up over the Atlantic basin; the one around 53W could becoming Tropical Storm Hanna in coming days. That one will not be a Gulf of Mexico system, but it could threaten the East Coast of the U.S. Watch the Weather Xtreme video for more.
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Thanks to everyone up in Winfield for their hospitality… I spoke to the senior adults at the Kemp Meadows Living Center. Too bad I didn’t have time for lunch at the Boar’s Butt. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
