Scroll down for the newest advisory but here are additional notes:
* Latest official track forecast brings Gustav very near the center of the Gulf of Mexico early Sunday night.
* It appears the projected landfall has been displaced a bit more to the west on the Louisiana coast sorta SSW of New Orleans. Previous tracks indicated near the mouth of the Mississippi near Boothville, La. The usual caution: Don’t put too much stock in it. That projection is for 1 am next Tuesday morning (Sept. 2) and substantial errors may occur by that time. Even the NHC cautioned again this morning that the average intensity error that far out is 25 mph.
* The current intensity forecast for 1 am next Tuesday is sustained winds of 115 mph with gusts about 140 mph.
* Recon found a surprise this morning. Gustav either reformed during the night or has been moving more to the WSW.
* A drop in central pressure of 10 millibars in just the last six hours!
* Haiti terrain caused a significant disruption.
* Water over NW Caribbean is very deep and very warm.
* Possible SW shear may be encountered over the Gulf because of an upper trough. That could slow his rate of intensification some.
* We received hourly observations from 40 stations last hour across Cuba and not much going on. Highest wind at any station was 18 mph but Cuba is still ahead.
* Zero reports from Haiti which is not unusual.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OBSERVED AROUND 4 OCLOCK THIS MORNING
* 87 at buoy 42056 in the Caribbean
* 84 buoy 42057 West Caribbean
* 86 Lower Gulf of Mexico (SE)
* 86 buoy 42001 180 NM south of Louisiana Coast
* 90 at PSTL1 off the SE most point of Louisiana (off the mouth of the Mississippi)
* 86 East Gulf buoy
* 83 Pensacola Bay
* 84 Mobile South Buoy 64 NM south of Dauphin Island
OFFICIAL FORECASTS
GULFPORT/BILOXI…Relatively quiet until showers and thunderstorms become numerous in the Monday and Tuesday time frame.
GULF SHORESs/ORANGE BEACH/DAUPHIN ISLAND…Small risk of showers or storms through Sunday, increasing in number Sunday night and becoming numerous at times Labor Day.
FINAL CAUTION
The “Cone of Concern” for Gustav extends all the way from the central Texas Coast eastward to about Panama City. The Central Louisiana Coast just happens to be in the center.
Look for heavy traffic (frequent updates and supplementary information) throughout the Gustav adventure. Lots of sleepless hours ahead in the weather office.
