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During periods like this (a developing hurricane prior to a holiday weekend), the e-mail inbox overflows. I won’t be able to answer all of them individually, so I drive folks here to get their questions answered, so the Weather Extreme video and the discussion will be little longer than usual. I do encourage you to watch the video; often pictures are indeed worth a thousand words (and they save a lot of typing!).
AROUND HERE: Dry is the word through tomorrow with hotter afternoons; we will be in the low 90s today and tomorrow with a good supply of sunshine both days. A few widely scattered showers could show up over the Labor Day weekend, but they should be widely spaced, and our weather will be generally dry Saturday through Monday. We could be in the subsidence ring on the northern periphery of Gustav Monday, which means sinking motion and no rain.
FOOTBALL WEATHER: Great weather for opening nights of the high school football season tonight and tomorrow night; the sky will be clear with kickoff temperatures generally in the mid 80s, dropping into the upper 70s by the fourth quarter. We will guarantee no rain for Saturday’s Alabama/Clemson battle in Atlanta since they are playing in the Georgia Dome. Light wind, and a temperature of 72. Auburn hosts Louisiana-Monroe Saturday night at 6:00; just a slight risk of a shower during the game with temperatures falling from near 90 at kickoff to 84 by the end of the game. UAB opens Saturday again Tulsa at 3:00 at Legion Field; the sky will be partly sunny with just a slight risk of a shower. Temperatures will be in the low 90s at kickoff.
GUSTAV: Ole Gus really had a hard time yesterday due to the interaction with Haiti, but the system looks much more healthy this morning as it approaches Jamaica. In fact, data from a Hurricane Hunter shows that Gustav is strengthening rapidly now, with sustained winds of 70 mph.
Gustav is still expected to be a significant hurricane as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. The official NHC track takes Gustav to a point near Morgan City, Louisiana Tuesday morning. This tends to be a little on the west side of the model envelope; the GFDL (00Z run) shows landfall at Pascagoula, Mississippi Monday night, and the ECMWF takes Gustav right into the mouth of the Mississippi and New Orleans.
I still believe the greatest risk of landfall early next week will be from Morgan City, Louisiana to Gulf Shores, Alabama. Most likely, the time frame for landfall will be late Monday night or Tuesday morning.
INTENSITY: This is the area where we simply don’t know much. I learned long ago in this business to “tell them what you know, and don’t tell them what you don’t know”. Intensity forecasting is almost impossible this far in advance. Both the HWRF and the GFDL bring Gustav up to major hurricane status (category three or higher), and that is certainly possible. But, like I mentioned here yesterday, dry air entrainment, shear aloft, or changes in oceanic heat content could bring this one down to minimal hurricane status. Not likely, but once again, possible. Folks along the coast will need to prepare for the worst, and pray for the best.
WHAT TO DO ABOUT A LABOR DAY BEACH TRIP: This is the one that generates most of the questions. If my idea of Morgan City to Gulf Shores is correct, then Panama City will be on the fringe of Gustav and there will be no evacuations there (but you can bet the surf will be very rough by Monday). The greatest likelihood of evacuation orders most likely will be from New Orleans east, through the Mississippi coast and the Alabama coast. And, these evacuations could begin as early as Sunday. Most likely, contra-flow will be initiated with all lanes on major highways designated as northbound.
Having said that, the weather will be very nice on the coast Saturday and Sunday with a good deal of sunshine both days. Conditions will begin to rapidly deteriorate by Monday afternoon into Monday night and Tuesday.
IMPACT ON NORTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA: If Gustav moves into that region from Morgan City to Gulf Shores as a major hurricane, then there could be widespread tree and power line damage across much of Alabama Tuesday, Tuesday night, or early Wednesday, much like the impact from Ivan or Katrina. However, if the system is only a minimal hurricane, then the rain will be the story. One way or another, we will certainly be hitting rain hard in the forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday morning.
REMEMBER: Expect changes in this forecast in coming days. Keep the blog on your RSS reader, or check in often. We will crank out frequent updates all the way through.
TD NUMBER 8: Lets look east… tropical depression 8 is expected to become Tropical Storm Hanna later today; this one will be moving toward the Atlantic coast of the U.S…. the NHC track has the system near the Bahamas early next week as a hurricane. A blocking high seems to make this a situation where a turn toward the East Coast of the U.S. is likely. Our friends from Miami north to Charleston and Cape Hatteras will have to watch this one very carefully next week.
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I will be speaking this morning at First Baptist Church Trussville… then back into the office, and the afternoon edition of the Weather Xtreme video should be ready by 3:30. Enjoy the day!
