J.B.’s internet is dead in the water early this afternoon…so I am subbing for him…
Here’s the latest on Ike…
FAST FACTS…1 PM CDT
LOCATION…21.2N/79.1W….250 MILES ESE OF HAVANA (CUBA, NOT JUNCTION)
MOVEMENT…W-14 MPH
TOP WINDS…100 MPH
CENTRAL PRESSURE…965 MB
…Ike has taken a short cut across Cuba. The center is now completely over water and re-intensification could begin much sooner than anticipated.
…The morning GFS says South Texas Friday night. The NAM looks like South Texas also. HWRF says Galevston as the eventual landfall point. as a 920 mb (potentially Cat 5) hurricane. GFDL depicts a 956 mb hurricane striking Galveston Friday night. Kevin may be right with his perennial Galveston pick for landfall for any hurricane.
…Since the eye is over water…the reconnaissance plane is flying missions into the center again…here is the latest vortex data report…central pressure 970…inner core disorganized, but outer eyewall in good shape…
URNT12 KNHC 081820 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008
A. 08/18:03:30Z
B. 21 deg 11 min N
079 deg 09 min W
C. 700 mb 2809 m
D. 64 kt
E. 299 deg 10 nm
F. 062 deg 057 kt
G. 331 deg 005 nm
H. 970 mb
I. 10 C/ 3053 m
J. 12 C/ 3046 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CO15-60
M. OPEN E
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF309 1209A IKE2 OB 02 CCA
MAX WIND OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 63 KT SE QUAD 18:14:30 Z
INNER EYEWALL STRUCTURE WEAK AND POORLY ORGANIZED. OUTER EYEWALL
BETTER DEFINED THAN INNER CORE FEATURE
——————————
WTNT34 KNHC 081754
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
200 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2008
…IKE BACK OVER WATER…RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY
APPROACHING…
AT 200 PM EDT…1800 UTC…THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THAT ISLAND.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF GUANTANAMO…SANTIAGO DE CUBA… HOLGUIN…LAS TUNAS AND
GRANMA…CAMAGUEY…CIEGO DE AVILA….VILLA CLARA…SANCTI
SPIRITUS…CIENFUEGOS…MATANZAS…LA HABANA…CIUDAD DE
HABANA…PINAR DEL RIO…AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN
BRAC.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS…INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN
REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND AND RAGGED
ISLAND.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT GRAND CAYMAN.
INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF IKE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM EDT…1800Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES…
130 KM…WEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 250 MILES…405 KM…
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH…22 KM/HR…BUT A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY. ON THIS
TRACK…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA TODAY…MOVE OVER
WESTERN CUBA TUESDAY…AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH…160 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF
IKE’S INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER WATER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES…95 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES…325 KM. JUCARO ON THE SOUTH COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA RECENTLY
REPORTED A GUST TO 86 MPH…138 KM/HR.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB…28.50 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9-12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1-3 FEET…ALONG WITH LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES…ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER CUBA…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA…WITH 2
TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE FLORIDA KEYS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH TOMORROW.
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION…21.2 N…79.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…965 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA
