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Precipitable water values are running high (two inches plus) across North-Central Alabama this morning, and that should lead to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Scroll down and read the posts from Tim Coleman and Bill Murray on the weekend activity. Birmingham’s official rain for the month of August has jumped from 0.25″ Friday morning, to a whopping 3.71″. We also note the rain deficiency for the year is now well under 20 inches for a change… 17.98″ to be exact.
Yep, rainfall distribution was not even over the weekend, but if you missed the better rain in recent days, you will have an excellent chance of getting soaked on a daily basis through Wednesday as we expect no real change in the moist airmass over the state. And, with the lack of a capping inversion, no reason to think we won’t see plenty of action on the radar during the afternoon and evening hours. We might even see some nocturnal activity with a plethora of surface boundaries around here adding to low level convergence.
LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND: The GFS tries to bring drier air down into North Alabama during this time frame, but with a weak upper air wind regime, a major airmass change is not very likely, so showers and storms could become more widely separated by Thursday and Friday, but we sure won’t take them out of the forecast.
The Labor Day weekend looks fairly normal for early September with partly sunny weather Saturday through Monday and a chance of an afternoon shower or storm in scattered spots each day. Looks like the afternoon high will be close to 90.
NO MORE TDH: As we first mentioned back on Friday, the triple digit heat is out of here until 2008, or maybe longer. Good riddance… Still lots of inconsistency in the GFS in the 7 to 15 day time frame; some runs show a good push of cool Canadian air moving in here, but other runs don’t (including the 00Z run). It will happen sooner or later… I love that first cool morning of the season when you wake up to 40s and 50s around here.
TROPICS: A nice disturbance has moved into the Mexican coast south of Brownsville, Texas this morning; and a tropical wave shows up in the Central Caribbean with no sign of development. A quick glace at SST charts shows cooler than normal water in the eastern Atlantic; that might mean systems that form in the next week or two might on this side of the big pond; the water is really warm around here and we will keep an eye on things.
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