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The next 24 to 30 hours are expected to be quite active from Texas and Oklahoma all the way across to Alabama. The SPC has a large area under moderate risk of severe storms today and tonight with the risk area shifting east into Georgia and South Carolina on Sunday.
There are a number of factors coming together today. First, a boundary lies east-to-west across the Southeast US with a strong discontinuity of temperature and dew point. For example, the dew point was 52 at Nashville this morning while it was 67 at Calera. This boundary will be the focus for thunderstorm development today as a strengthening short wave moves out of the eastern Rockies.
The overall weather pattern is quite complex with those elements plus a vorticity center that will move eastward later today and tonight. So here is what I think will be happening. We could see storms develop in moist air mass due to afternoon heating and those could be strong to severe. Later tonight and early Sunday, the cold front and surface low to our west will sweep into the state with the possibility of a squall line or perhaps large clusters with a potential for derecho events. Also later this afternoon discrete supercells with the potential for long track tornadoes could develop in the vicinity of the east-west boundary.
So as the title of the Blog post notes, it is a veritable buffet of severe weather possibilities today and tonight. As James noted yesterday the greatest threat for Central Alabama is likely to come during the overnight hours say from 7 pm through 9 am Sunday.
There are lots of outdoor events going on including the Downtown Throwdown and the Buck Creek Festival, so I urge all of the organizers of these events to stay informed on weather developments in order to keep the events weather safe.
The system sweeps out of here Sunday with a couple of nice dry days for Monday and Tuesday. The GFS is forecasting a trough over the Southwest US which will keep the Southeast US under a southwesterly flow regime. This could mean a rather wet period for the days from Wednesday through Friday – not all day rains but certainly numerous showers.
Long range forecasts suggest another wet event around May 22nd, but that’s pure voodoo at the moment and we need to focus on the event right in front of us.
Stay tuned to the Blog and to ABC 3340 for the latest information as our weather unfolds. And if you get an opportunity, come by the Buck Creek Festival today and say hello. I’ll be there all day today handling some emcee duties and keeping tabs on the weather. Have a great weekend but be weather safe.
-Brian-
