An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes…
Remember, we are on a holiday schedule through Sunday… just one Weather Xtreme video per day. I will most likely produce the video tomorrow afternoon around 3:30 or so.
Our forecast for today called for temperatures to drop into the 40s. At 2:00, Birmingham is at 45 degrees with a north wind averaging 13 mph, gusting to 20 mph. The models had us in the 50s today… they simply do not have the resolution to handle shallow cold air, and they cannot be trusted on a day like today. Accordingly, we ignored model guidance and our forecast worked out wonderfully. But, lets not sit and gloat… about the time you start that then a big bust is usually around the corner that will bring you to your knees. There is very little humility left in our science, but the truth is that there is so much we don’t know or understand.
MOUNT CHEAHA: A check of the ABC 33/40 Skycam site at Mt. Cheaha shows 38 degrees at 2:50 p.m. I sure would love to be up there in a cabin for the weekend.
LOOKING AHEAD: The sky will clear tonight, and we will be very close to freezing by daybreak tomorrow. Expect a good supply of sunshine tomorrow, but temperatures will remain cool with a high only in the low 50s.
WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM: The GFS continues to trend a little slower with our weekend system. Overrunning begins late Saturday afternoon, so a pretty decent part of the day Saturday could be dry. But, widespread rain is likely Saturday night with temperatures in the 40s. If there is a serious degree of evaporative cooling, we might have rain falling with temperatures in the 30s. If this were January, we might be talking ice storm potential here, but this late November, so a cold rain should be the story.
The weather still looks wet and cold for the Iron Bowl Saturday night down at Jordan-Hare Stadium… rain likely with temperatures in the 40s.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY: The 12Z GFS continues to idea of pushing a warming front northward across Alabama late Sunday, with most of the state going into the warm sector by Sunday night and Monday morning. The model shows a deep surface low near Paducah, Kentucky Monday morning at 6:00, with a trailing cold front down through far eastern Mississippi. The system is supported by a vigorous, negative tilt upper trough. If this is correct, our primary through of severe weather will come from about 3:00 a.m. until 9:00 a.m. Monday. That, of course, is a time when the atmosphere tends to be relatively stable, but the strong dynamic forcing can overcome that. And, the timing can (and probably) will change we get closer. Stay tuned….
WEATHER PARTY: Get all the latest weather news over on our sister site, WeatherParty.com. Be sure and register while you are there; you can submit stories and vote on them to determine what is published on the front page. This is a great way to find the latest weather-related news stories.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.
I hope you are enjoying a peaceful Thanksgiving Day with family and friends. I was surrounded by family at our house this morning with a wonderful feast for lunch. What a great day. Again, look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so tomorrow afternoon. Also, a big thanks to J.B. for burning the midnight oil last night watching that line of storms crossing the state. I hope he is getting a big power nap this afternoon!
