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STORM ALERT XTREME THIS SATURDAY: Want to be trained as a storm spotter? Want to join the ABC 33/40 Skywatcher team? Our annual training event, Storm Alert Xtreme, is coming up this Saturday November 15 at the BJCC during the annual Birmingham International Auto Show. You will be trained by the best SKYWARN trainer in the nation, our own Brian Peters (he has trained over 6,000 Alabama storm spotters over the years), and learn from one of the most brilliant weather researchers in the country, our own Dr. Tim Coleman. We encourage all of our Skywatchers to attend this every year; you simply cannot get enough training. We will begin at 9:30, and be out by 3:30. And, everyone that attends Storm Alert Xtreme gets free admission to the Alabama International Auto Show. There is no admission charge, and no need to register. Just show up, but get there early for a good seat. We had a packed house last year!
A COLD MONDAY MORNING: Some quick 5:00 observations…
Scrougeout (northeast of Gadsden in Etowah County) 25
Anniston 28
Concord/Hueytown 28
Muscle Shoals 28
Decatur 29
Tuscaloosa 29
Birmingham 31
With dry air in place, we should warm into the 60s today with blue sky and sunshine. This is the easy part of the forecast; beyond today we are still dealing with model madness, but the idea of rain at times during the latter half of the week, and a shot of cold air for the weekend looks very likely.
VETERAN’S DAY: Both the GFS and the NAM are now suggesting most of the day tomorrow will be dry, with just a chance of some rain late in the day, mainly over Northwest Alabama. The high will be in the 66 to 69 degree range with clouds on the increase. For now, it looks like the weather will be dry for the big Veteran’s Day parade through downtown Birmingham.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: There is no doubt we will have periods of rain, and probably a few thunderstorms on these days. It is very difficult to say exactly when the best chance of rain will be; seems like the highest coverage could be Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night with a warm front pushing through, and then again on Friday with a cold front. The 06Z GFS hints at a lull in the rain on Thursday (see the Weather Xtreme video).
We also note the chance of severe weather on Friday has decreased with the surface low well to the north of Alabama, but should instability values come in higher than forecast, we still could see some strong storms around here Friday with the Polar front.
COLD WEEKEND: Looks like the coldest air so far this season blows in here for the weekend. The GFS MOS numbers look too high (the model was way too warm for this morning a few days ago); I think the high Saturday will be in the 50 to 55 degree range, and very good chance we won’t get out of the 40s Sunday with a chilly north wind. We should go well below freezing by Monday morning of next week, with lows well down in the 20s. The weekend will be dry.
VOODOO LAND: The GFS (06Z run) is advertising even colder air in here around November 20; with highs only in the 30s. Sure is cold for so early in the season. The good news is that with these cold air shots, there is no sign of a major severe weather threat on the table for the rest of the month.
TROPICS: Paloma dissipated last night over the north coast of Cuba, and the rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. We will record a few episode tonight; it will be posted around 11:00 p.m.
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I am on the road to Northport today; I will be doing a weather program at Faucett-Vestavia Elementary this morning. I will be back in the office by early afternoon, and the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
