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No real need to change our ongoing forecast. The developing surface low in the northwest Gulf of Mexico will bring rain into Alabama by mid to late afternoon. Initially, the rain will evaporate before reaching the ground, and I bet we get a number of reports of sleet (ice pellets) at the onset of the precipitation. Then, with warm air advection kicking in, we are talking all rain tonight for most of the state. The only potential for bridge icing will be over the high terrain locations of Jackson and DeKalb counties in far Northeast Alabama, and even there it is only a limited chance. A more significant problem with bridge icing is likely to the east, over far northern Georgia (well north of Atlanta).
We figure we will pick up about one-half of rain tonight, with the heavier totals near the Gulf coast, where some spots like Mobile and Pensacola could receive over two inches.
I get the idea the rain will end pretty early tomorrow morning, maybe as early as 6:00 a.m., as the surface low pulls away to the northeast.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT: We note the NAM is a little more aggressive with the idea of some light rain up into central Alabama Friday afternoon; the GFS is dry as a bone. We have mentioned the chance of some light rain south of Birmingham Friday, but the air up this way will be relatively dry and I am not totally convinced much precipitation will happen. Friday night, and Arctic front will approach, and a shower or two is not totally out of the question; maybe even a snow shower after midnight as the really cold air begins diving into the state.
FRIGID WEEKEND: I think the GFS high of 43 on Saturday is too warm; I am using 35 in the forecast for Birmingham. Strong north winds will keep the wind chill well below freezing all day; in the single digits at times. The GFS has caught on to the idea of a very cold morning Sunday; the GFS MOS is printing 17, while we are using 18 in our forecast. The colder valleys will be down in the 10 to 15 degree range at daybreak Sunday, and some of the really cold spots might even come in with 8 or 9 degrees.
NEXT WEEK: Model madness is the story; I do think we will have some rain to deal with on Tuesday, although the GFS isn’t seeing it right now for some reason. For now it looks like mostly rain here, although I would not be shocked if we had some ice issues north of Alabama on the northern periphery of that wave. And, the pattern continues to look rather cold and unsettled for the rest of January.
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I will be speaking to the kids at Meadow View Elementary in Alabaster this morning… then I will be in the office by early afternoon and the afternoon Weather Xtreme video should be posted here by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
