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ANOTHER GULF LOW: Rain is spreading into Southwest Alabama this afternoon ahead of the next storm system in the western Gulf of Mexico, and that rain should reach the I-20 corridor tonight, possibly as early as 8:00, based on radar trends. We will have periods of rain tonight and tomorrow, with the heaviest rain down south, where flash flood watches are up for parts of South Alabama.
The models are getting more aggressive with rain totals. The NAM is now printing 1.17″ for Birmingham, while the GFS has ramped up to 0.92″. Seems logical based on what we see developing now, so it looks like much of Central Alabama could indeed see one inch of rain during the next 24 hours. It will be a cold rain, with temperatures hovering in the 41 to 45 degree range most of the day tomorrow. Even the MOS products are now beginning to understand (they had us in the 50s tomorrow for much of the week, which was way too warm).
The rain will end from west to east by early afternoon as the surface low pulls away. We note there is a good chance of snow from this system over the western half of North Carolina and Southwest Virginia, where winter storm warnings have been posted.
COLD WEEKEND: Saturday will be cloudy and cold, and a few snow flurries are possible mainly over the Tennessee Valley of extreme North Alabama as a strong disturbance rotates through the base of the upper trough over the eastern U.S. Sunday should be a partly sunny day, and on both days temperatures won’t make it out of the mid 40s. MOS products remain too warm.
LOOKING FOR A SLEIGH RIDE: Not much change in our thinking next week. A major pre-Christmas storm is likely, and it is way too early to even think about who gets rain and who gets snow. There is no skill in identifying a rain-snow line six days in advance. But, confidence is high the system will develop as forecast. Watch the Weather Xtreme video; you will see the 12Z GFS has trended northward with the surface low, keeping us with mostly rain, but every run will look different. Forget the individual runs, use the ensemble approach.
We will have rain or snow, or perhaps rain changing to snow, in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame next week. Where the snow falls, it could be heavy and travel could be impacted, so if you are headed “home for the holidays”, keep in touch with the latest weather developments. We should have a pretty good idea on an initial rain-snow line Sunday.
One way or another, Christmas looks very cold. We could stay below freezing much of the day with snow flurries in the wake of the departing storm.
VOODOO LAND: If we miss the snow before Christmas, we surely will have another chance before New Year’s Day. Again, watch the Weather Xtreme video for details. The weather pattern will remain cold and unsettled through the rest of December, and possibly into January.
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