The Thursday afternoon edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes:
This will continue to be a very challenging forecast for the foreseeable future. I know you are all tired of “this model says this, and that model says that”, but the point of this discussion is to let you peek behind the curtains and see what we are dealing with. The good, the bad, and the ugly.
The computer models are going to have a very hard time with this pattern, and the MOS products will remain unusable for the most part, especially beyond 24 hours. I think many media outlets use the MOS products for the forecasts without anyone looking at them; that is why you might see a big discrepancy between our forecasts and those from other places. I don’t reject the MOS numbers just to reject them, but I firmly believe they are wrong. Look at forecast verification in the last week; most of the other outlets were forecasting highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s for the period January 28-31 a few days in advance. We never saw 50 on those days… here are the actual observed temps in Birmingham:
Jan 28: 44/25
Jan 29: 43/18
Jan 30: 49/28
Jan 31: 43/19
Forecasting 50s and 30s just because that is “average” for this time of the year doesn’t make sense… our weather is rarely “average” anyway. Works the same way in the summer. All we are trying to do is tell you what we think will happen… nothing more, nothing less.
ROLLING ON: Rain is increasing again as I write this over Mississippi and West Alabama; we will have more rain at times tonight; but we should stay above freezing, with a low in the mid 30s. The rain will end early in the morning, and for now tomorrow looks mostly cloudy but dry. The high should be in the mid 40s.
THE WEEKEND: Another surge of cold air creeps in here Saturday. That cold air will be shallow. The NAM with its better resolution is catching on; it shows a high of 42; I still think we never get out of the 30s. And, to the south, a short wave aloft will help to generate a surface wave in the Gulf of Mexico. Some model runs have pushed precipitation with this feature as far north as I-20, but most runs have kept all of it south of U.S. 80, or over the southern half of the state.
Oddly enough, there might a risk of some snow or sleet over Central Alabama Saturday night, along the U.S. 80 corridor from Demopolis to Montgomery to Opelika. For now we assume most of this will remain south of us, and we will mention only a few scattered flurries over the weekend. But, in this difficult pattern the forecast can change in a heartbeat, so stay tuned.
Sunday looks cold and dry with a high in the mid 30s.
NEXT WEEK: No confidence in details. I really mean that. I think the GFS is in error in bringing the heights that high over Alabama on Monday; we will remain well below guidance on our temperatures. And, the GFS does show more cold air rolling in here Tuesday and Wednesday. The idea of another Gulf wave at the middle of next week is NOT off the table, but for now the guidance looks dry.
LONG RANGE: Temperatures should remain below normal deep into February as this blocked pattern shows little change. There will be periods of moderating temperatures, but the weather remains cold.
Speaking of cold, I stand by my statement that parts of the nation will have their coldest air in many years in coming days. See this SPS from the NWS office in Milwaukee:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
148 PM CST WED JAN 31 2007
…ARCTIC BLAST THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK…
A SERIES OF STRONG COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH WISCONSIN BEGINNING
FRIDAY…ALLOWING SEVERAL SURGES OF BITTERLY COLD AIR TO OVERSPREAD
WISCONSIN. THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS IS THEN EXPECTED TO RESIDE OVER
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THESE FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL BE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON…AND PERHAPS THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN THE PAST DECADE.
That is right in line with the thinking here. This cold will be very difficult and extreme, and the barbed wire fence up on the Tennessee border won’t hold it back from reaching us at times.
STORM ALERT 2007: If you live in West Alabama, we expect to see you tonight at the show at Shelton State Community College in Tuscaloosa. We will be in the gym; the doors open at 5:00 and the show begins at 7:00. Bill Castle has put the video packages together, so you know it will be good. We have bunches of NOAA Weather Radio receivers to give away, and you can meet the entire ABC 33/40 Weather Team. I will miss having Oldshue with us this year, but he will always be a big part of our family. In fact, John was up all night last night working here in the office with our newest meteorologist, Ashley Brand.
I had a wonderful time this morning speaking at the Youth Leadership Forum put on by Alabama Power; there were hundreds and hundreds of high school students there at the Bryant Conference Center in Tuscaloosa. I will be off for Tuscaloosa shortly; I hope to see you tonight!
