The Tuesday morning edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available on the player below, and also on iTunes:
A FRESH SUPPLY OF COLD AIR: Northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph will bring in a fresh supply of chilly air into Alabama today. Even with ample sunshine we will have a hard time getting out of the 40s today. And, to the north, a snow advisory is in effect for the Great Smoky mountains, where one to our inches of snow is likely, mainly above 2,500 feet. What a great day to be up at Gatlinburg. They probably won’t have too much snow accumulation in town due to the warm ground; the better amounts will be in higher elevations.
We are still looking at lows down in the mid 20s tomorrow morning for most folks, with the range from 24 to 29. The coldest valleys have a chance of reaching the low 20s. This will be the coldest morning so far in 2007.
LATER THIS WEEK: We begin to warm up Thursday afternoon, and by Friday we will be well into the 60s. Moisture levels will also return, and a few scattered showers could break out Friday afternoon, but I think most of the day will be dry.
THE WEEKEND: The GFS continues to keep most of the rain on Saturday west and north of here; I get the idea most of the day will be dry with intervals of sunshine and temperatures up around 70 degrees. Might be another fine day for golf or a picnic. The best chance of rain Saturday will be along and north of U.S. 278, and the real heavy rain will be along I-40, from Little Rock to Memphis to Nashville. That band of rain and storms will finally move in here at some point on Sunday; the 06Z GFS suggests it might be late Sunday afternoon or even Sunday night before the rain arrives.
NEXT WEEK: I still think someone across the Deep South will have a risk of freezing rain during the first half of next week as a shallow layer of cold, Arctic air moves into the region. Moist air will run over the top of the cold air (overrunning), and that can often lead to an icy mess when temperatures at the surface are colder than 32. I caution you not to look at run to run model differences too much seven days in advance; just focus on the pattern. Every run will look different at this stage of the game. I also remind you the cold air can be less than 5,000 feet deep, so sometimes even the 850 mb chart doesn’t tell the story you need. I have seen significant ice here with 850 mb temps of plus 2 (C).
You can’t ignore the -40s all over Alaska this morning (degrees F), and that air has to move. If that moves down into the lower 48 next week, the GFS will probably be too warm. And, with shallow cold air, forget the MOS numbers; they will be horrible.
At first glance it seems like Little Rock and Memphis might have a greater chance of icing issues, but then again the deeper moisture will be down here in the overrunning pattern. If we do have any ice problems, it most likely would come sometime between Monday night and Wednesday. I remind you freezing rain is not fun; listen to the new WeatherBrains I am about to post and see what people in Nebraska have been dealing with this month.
For you snow fans, this pattern early next week is not for you. The cold air has to be deeper for that to happen, but you might get your wish later in the month. As J.B. has pointed out here, we have seen some -70s in Siberia during the last 24 hours, and the rubber band holding that on the other side of the pole has a chance to break. I sure get the idea that this winter might surprise many people with the magnitude and scope of cold air that will impact North America during the next 60 days. The ECMWF seems to be trending toward a trough over the central and east part of the nation, as opposed to the GFS idea of a western trough. Even the GFS jumps on the eastern trough bandwagon at 384 hours; sure looks cold for much of the nation on the 06Z run.
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We taped a new WeatherBrains show last night… will post it shortly. I think you will enjoy it. I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted by 3:30 this afternoon… enjoy the day!
