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Forecast appears to be pretty much on track as Central Alabama is looking at probably the coolest day this month thanks to clouds and rain. Alabamians were waking up to the sound of light rain falling over a big area of the state stretching from near Dothan through Montgomery and Birmingham all the way to Russellville in Northwest Alabama. Rainfall amounts were not big – generally around one to two tenths of an inch – but this is just the kind of soaking rain that will help the soil as it sinks in well. I would not be surprised to see most locations reach only the lower 80s for highs. However, any breaks in the clouds which allow the sun to come through could shoot up to the mid or upper 80s. But I think for most of us, this will be a cool, wet day.
The question is what is this little low and the upper air reflection going to do. The GFS suggests that it will stick around, however, the GFS also reduces fairly substantially the rain from this weakness. I’m inclined to think that Monday and Tuesday will continue to see some rain chances though less coverage than today.
As Earl approaches the East Coast of the US around the end of this upcoming week, we will experience the subsidence of a major hurricane which will keep us warm and dry for the most part. But as Earl takes a swipe at the Outer Banks area of North Carolina, we could see a weak front come into the area by next weekend. This will not be a strong front with a big air mass change, but it could bring some drier air that would be welcomed.
Tropics remain active. On the big picture, the Atlantic Basin has five areas of disturbed weather – Danielle, Earl, what might become Fiona in the next couple of days, a disturbed area just off the coast of Africa, and one more disturbance in the train over the African continent still to come.
Danielle is slipping to the east of Bermuda and will be changing characteristics as it moves over the North Atlantic. Earl is following behind Danielle, but continues to defy forecasters by staying on a track to the south and west of earlier projections. Earl will be dealing a glancing blow to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Monday night and Tuesday. Earl could become a major hurricane after that as it moves around the Atlantic high just east of the Bahamas. The current forecast track brings Earl mighty close to the US coastline from North Carolina to New England. Close enough to potentially cause serious coastal flooding for that area.
Behind Earl is an area of disturbed weather that could become a depression in the next 24 to 48 hours.
The long range projections show the “energizer” ridge returning around the 8th of September. But as we saw yesterday, the GFS is still forecasting a substantial trough around the 13th that could bring an air mass change to the Southeast US. At least the trend is there and it’s getting to be about time for that sort of thing to happen!
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James Spann back at the controls once again Monday morning with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video. I hope you enjoy the cool, wet day which is most unusual for August. I may just sit on the porch some today and watch the rain come down. Godspeed.
-Brian-
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