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I am still not bullish on Alabama getting much rain for the next 7 to 10 days, unfortunately. However, we will at least have a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow thanks to a weakening upper level impulse west of Memphis, and a weak “backdoor” front just to the northeast of here. SPC has defined a slight risk of severe weather today for much of Mississippi thanks to the upper level feature, and you do have to figure the best chance of stronger storms today will be close to the Mississippi border.
Same story tomorrow; scattered showers and storms are possible, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. The NAM extraction prints a measly 0.24″ for Birmingham through 84 hours, while the GFS is a little more aggressive with 0.37″. Certainly no drought-buster, but hopefully a few lawns will catch a nice shower. Warm and muggy conditions will continue with a high in the low to mid 80s for most places today and tomorrow.
We note that the storm chasers will be having a field day tomorrow and tomorrow; SPC has defined a moderate risk of severe weather for a good part of the high plains on both days.
SUNDAY AND NEXT WEEK: The backdoor front gets a good nudge to the southwest, and drier and cooler air should move into Alabama from the east. We will hang on to a small risk of a shower on Sunday, but the dry air will be taking over, and the first half of next week looks dry. Nights will be cooler with lows down in the 50s, but afternoons will remain warm. We will be back in the mid 80s by the middle of next week. Most of next week looks dry at this time.
EARLY SEASON TROPICAL ACTION? The GFS continues to develop a tropical storm in the Atlantic over the weekend, moving it within about 250 miles of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast by Tuesday; it then kicks out to the northeast on Wednesday. Tropical storms can occur in May, but they are rather unusual. And, of course, the GFS could be totally out to lunch. But, it has shown up on almost every run over the last two days.
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I am on the road this morning to St. Clair County, where I will speak to the 5th graders at Ashville Middle School. I will be back in the office by early afternoon, and the afternoon edition of the Weather Xtreme video should be posted by 3:30!
