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THE ALABAMA WEATHER STORY: The moisture axis extending south from former Hurricane Gustav, now a hybrid system moving toward the Great Lakes, will move over Alabama tomorrow, so we will maintain the chance of a little light rain at times, but it sure won’t be a big rain event, and amounts should be light and spotty. The latest guidance moves drier air in here on Saturday, and it looks like the best chance of a shower Saturday will be near the Georgia border. Sunday and Monday still look dry and warm.
TROPICAL TRIO….
HANNA: Models have shifted a little to the right; looks like landfall will be somewhere around Wilmington, North Carolina late tomorrow night or during the pre-dawn hours Saturday as a minimal hurricane or strong tropical storm. Hanna will then move northeast, right along the Atlantic coast, bringing wind and rain all the way to New England by Sunday. I think the main problem with Hanna will be winds strong enough to down trees and power lines; flooding should not be a really big issue since the system will be moving along at a rather rapid clip. Hanna will have no direct impact on the weather in Alabama.
IKE: Still a major category four hurricane with winds of 140 mph, this one will be dangerously close to Miami by the first part of next week. The ECMWF moves Ike to near Miami, and then north right along the East Coast of Florida toward Daytona Beach. The GFS keeps the idea of Ike remaining over the Bahamas with no U.S. landfall. Everyone from Key West, all the way north up the Atlantic Coast of the U.S. will need to monitor the progress of Ike very closely in coming days.
We still do not expect Ike to enter the Gulf of Mexico; a mean upper trough over the eastern half of the U.S. should do the trick. Of course, we can’t make a promise here, but at this time Ike does not look like a Gulf of Mexico system.
JOSEPHINE: This is the weakest system on the board; it is in the eastern Atlantic, and will move steadily to the west/northwest over the open water. No significant strengthening is expected due to harsh upper air winds, and upwelling from Ike. This most likely won’t be a Gulf storm due to the higher latitude, but it is too early to determine if it will impact the U.S.
THE LAND OF VOODOO: Looking at next week, the GFS has delayed the cold front (the 12Z run of the GFS) until around September 13… we have a chance at some cooler air getting here following that one, if he model is right. And, of course, voodoo is voodoo.
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I had the pleasure of meeting some folks from Louisiana at Trinity Medical Center this morning; one couple made the long journey from New Orleans Monday; then their baby was born at the hospital yesterday! A number of infants have been reunited with their parents as well.
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