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The air between 7,000 and 10,000 feet is a little cooler overhead today, meaning the capping inversion is weaker, and accordingly a few storms have bubbled up this afternoon. J.B. calls them “illegal” storms because we really didn’t mention them in the formal forecast, but long time Alabamians know a storm is possible on just about every really hot summer afternoon. Models are not able to identify the small scale pockets of cooler air aloft that can make the difference between no rain at all on the radar, and a few hefty thunderstorms.
As I write this, the NWS has issued a “significant weather alert” for Shelby County until 3:30 for a big storm near Chelsea.
We just received this report from our Skywatcher (on the Skywatcher Instant Message conference) near Springville:
“Rain total at .21 inches, temp down to 75 degrees. Blessed relief!”
Wow… 75 degrees sure beats 103. But, the storms are isolated and a large part of Alabama is suffering through another day of oppressive summer heat.
LOOKING AHEAD: I really don’t see much difference in the atmosphere profile tomorrow, so the weather will be hot again, but maybe a few isolated storms will show up. Then, unfortunately, the 12Z GFS strengthens the upper ridge again (meaning warmer air aloft) on Sunday and Monday, and if that is correct there won’t be any storms around on those days, and afternoon temperatures will peak around 100 degrees.
LONG RANGE: The GFS breaks the heat pattern down by the end of next week, and an approaching from should bring a much better chance of showers and storms one week from today. We note the Canadian model (the 12Z run) backs off on the strength of the tropical system it has been showing in the Gulf of Mexico next week; it takes a weaker system toward Brownsville, Texas by Thursday. Interesting to note the 12Z Canadian run develops another tropical system in the Atlantic, east of the U.S. coast.
AND…. The 12Z GFS develops a tropical system over the far Southeast Gulf of Mexico around August 21, and it takes it into the New Orleans area as a major hurricane on August 23. But, lets all say it together, this is pure voodoo. The 00Z run had the system well east of the U.S. Atlantic coast, about 800 miles east of the position on the 12Z run. But, the screaming message is that it sure looks like the tropics are about to come alive in coming weeks. Hang on for an interesting ride.
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Brian Peters will have the Weather Xtreme video updates here over the weekend… my next video will be posted Monday morning by 7:00 a.m. Have a great weekend and STAY COOL.
