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MOISTURE LEVELS RISING: Dewpoints are on the rise this morning, and radar shows convection in scattered pockets over North Mississippi and Tennessee this morning. We will bring a chance of a few showers and storms later today and tonight, but they should be widely scattered, and most numerous over the northern third of the state. SPC maintains a slight risk of severe weather for much of Tennessee, and some of those strong storms could drift down into North Alabama late in the day. Otherwise, the day will be partly sunny with a high at or just over 90 degrees.
TOMORROW: This seems to be the day with the most active showers and thunderstorms as a weak front stalls out near the Alabama/Tennessee border. Still, it won’t rain everywhere, but where the storms do form some heavy rain is possible. SPC has low 5 percent severe weather probabilities across the state tomorrow due to the potential for the afternoon pulse type storms to produce strong winds in spots. The chance of any one spot getting wet tomorrow is about one in three.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: An upper high builds over Alabama and the Deep South, meaning a hot weekend with only isolated afternoon showers and storms around. If this were August, and if the top soil was depleted, we could be close to 100. But, this is early June, and and soil moisture is high, so highs should be in the low to mid 90s with a good supply of sunshine each day. It should be the hottest weekend so far this year.
NEXT WEEK: The 00Z GFS hints at a surface front drifting down here on Monday with some increase in scattered showers and storms. That same run tries to bring some drier air down into North Alabama Tuesday and Wednesday, but I am not sure the front can make it that far south with no upper support. We will roll with your standard summer forecast for much of next week for now.
TROPICS: All remains quiet across the Atlantic basin for now, and tropical storm formation is not expected through the rest of the week.
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