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THIS AFTERNOON: Not as many showers and storms around as I expected today, but there are still some healthy ones on radar. Cullman County was under a severe thunderstorm warning within the past hour; other strong ones are in a broad band from Lamar County, in West Alabama, east to Gadsden and Centre. To the south, strong storms are near Demopolis, and south of Montgomery.
The front is clearly south of Nashville, where the dewpoint us only 62, but north of Huntsville, where the dewpoint is 70 (based on the 2:00 p.m. CDT observations). That front will drift south, and showers and storms are still a decent possibility tomorrow south of U.S. 278, or south of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden. Drier air will filter into the Tennessee Valley tomorrow.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: These days continue to look mostly dry for the northern half of Alabama as dry air takes over. I guess we might consider some risk of a shower Thursday as far north as I-20, but the deeper moisture both days will be over the southern half of the state.
THE WEEKEND: The GFS keeps the deepest moisture over South Alabama this weekend. A shower or two could show up as far north as I-20, but it sure looks like the most numerous ones will be down south. The high Saturday and Sunday should be very close to 90 degrees, certainly not that bad for Independence Day weekend.
NEXT WEEK: Looks like we stay generally dry on Monday and Tuesday, followed by the usual chance of scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms over the latter half of the week.
ALEX: Should go inland late tonight as a category one hurricane south of Brownsville, Texas, along the Northeast Mexican coast. Heavy rain and flooding will be the main concern over the Texas coastal plain and the lower Rio Grande Valley.
FOURTH OF JULY AT THE BEACH: Alex, of course, won’t directly impact the Gulf Coast with the circulation center several hundred miles to the south, but the system’s large circulation will bring a deeper layer of tropical moisture across the region, and with a surface front stalled over Central Alabama, it looks like showers and storms will be fairly numerous through the weekend in the general area from Panama City to Gulf Shores. Only about 2 to 4 hours of sunshine each day. Sea water temperatures remain in the mid to upper 80s along the coast.
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