The Wednesday afternoon edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes:
The forecast for the next seven days is challenging. Even today’s forecast of “mostly cloudy” was dead wrong; but nobody seems to be griping about that boo-boo. And, depending on where you are, today’s forecast high of 58 was either too high, or too low. Our cold front is between Birmingham and Cullman as I write this shortly after 2:00; the Birmngham SKYCAM site atop the Daniel Building on 20th Street downtown reports 62 degrees, while the SKYCAM in Cullman is showing 53. To the north, Huntsville is at 48, while our friends in Nashville are shivering with 36. This is definitely not a “one number” kind of day for forecasting a high temperature.
The front will drift down to near U.S. 80 (Demopolis to Montgomery to Opelika) and stop early tomorrow, putting the northern half of the state in cold air tomorrow and Friday. The NAM MOS has a much better handle on the situation; it is showing a high of 41 tomorrow and 46 on Friday (for Birmingham). Overrunning should mean lots of clouds both days, and some scattered light rain at times. The NWS in Huntsville is a little concerned about some light bridge icing late tonight and early tomorrow across the Tennessee Valley, and they are wise to point that out. However, precipitation should be very light and major problems are not expected.
We should also note that we will be close to freezing (or maybe even a little below freezing) early Friday, and any drizzle or light rain could bring a little bridge icing. With no major upper forcing, amounts should be light and spotty.
THE WEEKEND: The weather will stay cold over the weekend; highs mostly in the 40s on Saturday and Sunday. And, with the stalled front just to the south and some overrunning, I am not convinced we will see all that much sunshine. And, we will have to introduce rain at times on Sunday with a wave moving along the front.
NEXT WEEK: A very interesting pattern sets up next week, and we cannot resolve details. But, models agree a surface low will form near Mobile Bay Monday night, moving to the southern Atlantic coast by Tuesday afternoon. This will bring a good rain to much of Alabama Monday night into Tuesday, and it sure looks like a good setup for snow for parts of the southern U.S. Models agree on the idea, but the diverge on the details of the surface low track. Best blend of the ECMWF, GFS, and JMA suggest the main snow threat will be over Tennessee, and maybe the far northern parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. The ECMWF solution especially shows a big snow for these areas.
The 12Z GFS has discounted the idea of a second storm later in the week, but is rock solid with another Gulf storm/winter weather threat for parts of the southern U.S. in the February 18-19 time frame.
No change in the overall pattern; much colder than normal for the eastern half of the nation, and occasional storms that form on the southern periphery of the Arctic air that could the threat of wintry weather to parts of the Deep South. I don’t know why these statements bring out the hate mail people, but that is exactly what is going on. The snow last week came down in Huntsville, Memphis, Nashville, Knoxville, Greenville, SC, and Charlotte… nobody has the skill to tell you where the snow will fall from coming storms multiple days in advance. Maybe the same places, maybe not. You know the deal, all we can do is wait and watch. Recognizing the pattern is easy, nailing down the nit-picking details is very hard.
STORM ALERT 2007: Remember, we will be in Oneonta tomorrow night for our annual weather tour across the state… get all the information here.
I sure enjoyed speaking to the entire student body today at Curry Middle School up in Walker County; be watching for them on the KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
