Good morning…
Little change in our thinking about the potential for severe weather across Alabama this afternoon. A warm front extends across northern Mississippi into Northwest Alabama. The warm front is the focus for thunderstorms over the Northwest corner of the state this morning. But these storms are elevated, meaning that their bases are a few thousand feet in the air, not near the surface. This means they can’t get terribly strong, although they can put up quite a fuss with heavy rain, gusty winds, lots of lightning and very loud, booming thunder. Some damage was caused across NE Mississippi this morning as an unsual low level jet situation allowed some winds to near 50 mph to reach the surface. This activity weakened as it moved into Alabama.
SETTING THE STAGE: Low pressure is over southern Arkansas this morning moving northeastward. The low seems to be taking more of a northerly track than earlier thought. As it lifts through Mississippi and intensifies, we will continue to see lots of warm, most air from along the Gulf Coast lifted northward. The more northerly track could mean that the really rich dew points (60F-65F) and greater severe weather threat will encompass more of the state. The Storm Prediction Center has the southern half of the state, roughly south of a line that bisects Clanton in a Moderate Risk for severe weather. And that could be expanded northward based on later date. The rest of the state is still in a Slight Risk area for now. Remember that Moderate Risks are still rare and a Public Severe Weather Outlook has been issued highlighting the threat for significant severe weather.
THE MAIN EVENT: We will watch the action unfold this morning as all of the troops move into place: the low to the west, the warm front, and a strong cold front waiting in the wings to the west. Thunderstorms will be continuing along the warm front, which will likely set up over North Central Alabama. South of that, the rich moisture will probably make it as far north as I-20 by early afternoon. Within this richer moisture, the airmass will become unstable. Wind shear will be sufficient for thunderstorms to become organized. Those storms that do develop will have the potential to produce significant severe weather, including the possibility of tornadoes. Again, we think the best chance of that is over the southern half of the state, mainly south of Clanton.
Then, a line of thunderstorms will push eastward across the state during the afternoon. These storms will have the potential to become severe, with embedded supercells and bow echoes producing wind damage and even the chance of a tornado. It will be windy both ahead of and behind the cold front, which will arrive tonight. A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for winds that will average 10-20 mph or higher.
COOLER: Expect a change to cooler behind the front, with temperatures tomorrow hanging in the 50os along with a blustery northwest wind. The mercury will dip precipitously close to the freezing mark tomorrow night, with some of the normally colder locations threatening to get near 32F. Monday and Tuesday look decent, with highs in the 60s and 70s respectively. Our next weathermaker will begin to affect the area by late on Tuesday as low pressure to our west moves to our south, with rain showers expected late Tuesday night into Wednesday.
