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One year ago today, August 12, 2007, Birmingham’s high was 102, a record for the day as our state was in the midst of a nasty heat wave and drought.
What a difference a year makes… it has been raining pretty much all day across Alabama, with temperatures holding in the 70s in many areas.
A strong surface low (for August) is approaching Alabama from the west, and we will maintain a good chance of rain at times tonight along with a few thunderstorms. The best chance of severe weather will remain over South Alabama, and a tornado watch is up for the southwest part of the state (see the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics and details).
Additional rain amounts of around one-half inch are likely today, with isolated amounts over one inch with stronger storms. Storm totals for most places should be somewhere between one and two inches.
THE DAYS AHEAD: As the surface low moves east of Alabama tomorrow, much drier air moves into North Alabama. Looks like the rain will end during the pre-dawn hours tomorrow, with the sky becoming mostly sunny as the dry air takes over. It now looks like THursday and Friday will be generally dry and warmer; highs will be close to 90 on those days with a partly to mostly sunny sky.
THE WEEKEND: The GFS is looking much drier for the weekend; we will begin to scale back the rain opportunities, but for now we will still mention some risk of scattered showers and storms both Saturday and Sunday. Looks like the high will remain in the 87 to 90 degree range over the weekend.
NEXT WEEK: We will roll with a standard summer forecast for much of next week at this time, until we can get more clarity on the tropical situation and waves in the mid-latitude westerlies. Still no sign of any excessively hot weather through the rest of the month (upper 90s or hotter).
TROPICS: The Atlantic twins are looking good on satellite images; the lead wave should be a tropical depression by this time tomorrow, if not a tropical storm. We are expecting Hurricane Hunter data back from that one any moment now, and we will know more about the structure of the system.
The latest GFDL now likes the lead system as the one to really develop; it brings it to hurricane strength, and moves it to a point over the Southeast Bahamas late this weekend, in a prime position to slam the southern tip of Florida, with entry into the Gulf of Mexico after moving across the Florida peninsula. This is all speculation, of course, but everyone over the Florida Peninsula and the Bahamas will need to pay close attention to this one.
The trailing wave does not look like a Gulf of Mexico system; it will begin to turn north in a few days, and it remains to be seen if it turns left again toward the Atlantic coast of the U.S. in response to high pressure building north of the system. As always, we wait and watch.
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I always enjoy coming back to the Mississippi State campus; I was there this morning speaking to the annual summer workshop for distance learning students from all around the nation. I met some very interesting people there, and saw many old friends. The BBQ from the Little Dooey was great.
Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
