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WET DAYS AHEAD: Feeling a little more confident about the forecast after a review of the 12Z model runs. The headline is beneficial rain for the state at times through Friday.
WINDY DAY TOMORROW: Winds will increase out of the south tomorrow in advance of our developing storm system. Winds could gust to 30 mph at times by afternoon, when a few scattered showers could develop. The big rain event will come late tomorrow night into Wednesday morning; it now appears most of the rain and associated thunderstorms will come from around 12:00 midnight tomorrow night until 12:00 noon Wednesday. Rain amounts should average two inches, with isolated amounts to three inches.
SEVERE WEATHER? Even though the main band of showers and storms will be coming in during the early morning hours Wednesday, when the air tends to be most stable, both models (GFS and NAM) show a sliver of surface instability here (from Birmingham south), and with very strong wind fields there remains a chance of wind gusts over 50 mph with the band of storms (maybe just showers, since I am not sure there will be that much lightning involved). So, while this is certainly not a major threat, you need to have your NOAA Weather Radio receiver in good working order in the event early morning warnings are needed. While the prime threat is from damaging straight line winds, you can’t rule out a small, isolate tornado based on the projected helicity values.
The best chance of severe weather will come from midnight tomorrow night until 6:00 a.m. Wednesday. The rain will taper off by Wednesday afternoon as round one comes to an end. It now looks like significantly cold air will not be associated with the front, so temperatures will be a bit cooler Wednesday, but not a case of temperatures falling into the 40s as we thought last night.
ROUND TWO: The trailing upper trough will spin up a surface low on the front near Mobile Bay Thursday, and rain will spread northward across the state. For the northern counties, it looks like more rain will fall Thursday afternoon, Thursday night, and into Friday morning. No snow flakes; the low level air looks too warm (surface temps no lower than 40 degrees; 850 temps well above freezing)… just periods of rain. That rain could taper off by midday Friday.
Between both rounds of rain, most Alabama communities should experience two to three inches of rain. Very beneficial.
WEEKEND PEEK: The weekend ahead looks cool and dry, with afternoon highs between 55 and 60 degrees. The low Saturday morning will be near freezing, but closer to 40 early Sunday morning. Moisture will begin to increase Sunday, but for now we will leave the forecast dry.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: The general look for the latter half of December continues to look a little warmer as the NAO trends toward neutral/positive territory. Still, we will have cold air intrusions, but confidence in any kind of specific solution in the December 16-25 time frame is very low. See the Weather Xtreme video; the 12Z run of the GFS shows a potentially stormy set-up for Christmas, but we all know that is voodoo.
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