A Good Soaking

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WET IS THE WORD: Our tropical low is over East Texas this morning, between Houston and Tyler. This feature, along with the associated upper low, will drift eastward in the next few days, keeping Alabama in a very moist environment through mid-week. Our forecast will highlight periods of rain and a few thunderstorms through Wednesday; the NAM is printing 1.54″ of rain, while the GFS 1.87. We figure most Alabama communities will receive three to five inches of rain through Friday.

The good news is that we figure the rain won’t come down heavy enough for any major flash flooding problems, and the risk of severe weather looks minimal. We do note SPC has low end tornado probabilities for Southwest Alabama today and tonight, but instability values even down there are rather marginal. Bottom line is that this will be a very beneficial rain event with no serious issues expected this week.

Once again, MOS guidance looks too warm; we will probably stay in the 70s today, tomorrow, and Wednesday due to the clouds and rain. MOS highs have been running about 5 degrees too warm for the past month or so.

LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND: As the tropical low weakens and becomes diffuse, we figure the showers will become more scattered by Friday and the weekend, but there is still no feature evident to really sweep out the moisture. So, for now, we will forecast the chance of a few scattered showers Saturday and Sunday, but nothing really widespread. Hopefully the weather won’t interfere with football, but a shower is certainly possible.

FRED IS DEAD: As expected, Fred pretty much fell apart over the weekend due to strong winds aloft; what’s left of the system is over the middle Atlantic, and conditions don’t favor any redevelopment soon, and the rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet. Amazingly quiet, in fact, for mid-September.

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This morning I am speaking up in Gadsden at mid-morning, I will be back this afternoon and the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 3:30. Enjoy the day and stay dry!