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RAIN BY WEDNESDAY: While our weather will stay dry today with a warm afternoon, we are watching a strong upper trough to the west that promises to bring rain back to Alabama by Wednesday. Looks like we do need to mention some risk of showers by tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night (the NAM is especially bullish on showers tomorrow), but the big rain day will be Wednesday when showers and thunderstorms are likely statewide. A few strong storms could be involved, but SPC does not have Alabama in a severe weather risk for now.
HOW MUCH? The HPC QPF graphic suggests rain amounts of over two inches for Alabama; I think that is too aggressive. The NAM is printing 1.02″ for Birmingham, and that sounds more reasonable. I figure rain totals will be somewhere between one-half and one inch.
LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND: Looks like the sky becomes partly sunny on Thursday as the rain moves off to the east, and the weather looks dry and pleasant Friday and Saturday. The next trough will bring some risk of showers by late Sunday and Sunday night, with a better chance on Monday (one week from today).
TROPICS: A disturbance in the Bay of Campeche is drifting west, toward the coast of Mexico, otherwise the Atlantic basin is pretty quiet right now.
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Today I will be on the road to Bibb County for a weather program at Woodstock Elementary School… I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
