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RIGHT NOW: As expected, we have a number of showers and storms on radar this afternoon, and where the storms have formed the rain is very heavy. Looks like parts of the I-459 corridor have seen about one inch of rain based on radar estimates, from Hoover to near Irondale, and some minor flooding issues have been reported in this part of the Birmingham metro area. Away from the storms, there is some sunshine with temperatures well into the 80s. All of the showers and storms will fade away late tonight.
REST OF THE WEEK: I really don’t expect the weather to change much through Friday. Occasional sunshine, warm, and humid with scattered showers and storms, most likely during the afternoon and evening hours. The chance of any one spot getting wet will remain about one in three through Friday, with the bulk of the showers coming from about 12:00 noon to 11:00 p.m. Highs will be in the 86 to 90 degree range. Very standard weather for early summer in Alabama.
THE WEEKEND: The 12Z GFS shows a weaker ridge aloft, and if that is correct the weather won’t change much. Mixed sun and clouds, some risk of an afternoon shower or storm, with highs around 90. I get the idea this solution is probably correct… often in the summer persistence is your best forecast. Trying to determine placement, coverage, and intensity of afternoon showers and storms days in advance is very hard, if not impossible to do.
NEXT WEEK: A nasty 5940 meter 500 mb heat bubble will begin to creep in here from the west, but the GFS keeps the worst heat to the west, over Texas and New Mexico. One way or another next week looks hot and steamy with highs in the low 90s, and some risk of scattered afternoon showers and storms on a daily basis.
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