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The pattern has shifted a bit as Central Alabama goes into what is expected to be a fairly wet pattern for the next four or five days before it turns much colder. This morning, a small band of light rain or showers was located across Central Alabama with individual elements moving east-northeast. It does not appear that any one spot will get much rain with this – perhaps a tenth of an inch or a tad more. Over the next five days there is a good possibility of around 2 inches of rain especially across the northwest corner of Alabama with 1 to 2 inches for much of Central Alabama.
With the clouds that moved in overnight, temperatures responded with little downward trend. The morning readings were generally in the 40s. We probably won’t see much rain overnight tonight, but rain chances go up Saturday afternoon and Saturday night ahead of a cold front coming at us from the west as a surface low moves out of the Southern Plains toward the eastern Great Lakes.
Once again there is a small window for no rain for much of Monday before the next system impacts our weather. And this Tuesday system could bring a severe weather punch to a large part of Mississippi and Alabama according to the SPC Day 5 outlook. The European seems to be stronger in the solution than the current GFS plus the European has shown better run-to-run consistency. The far into the future, or course, is still somewhat uncertain especially when it comes to defining the best instability. The GFS was more bullish on this system a couple of days ago, so it is going to be something for us to be watchful of.
Once that system, with or without severe weather, goes by, look out Nelly as cold air now perched over Canada makes a run for the Caribbean. This will put us into the deep freeze beginning the middle of next week.
And the GFS has maintained the cold with some winter weather threat around the 10th. Now this is still voodoo country, so I’m not making a forecast on it just yet. There has been consistency in this solution, and with frigid air in place, it stands to reason that there will be some sort of winter weather threat then. As to the exact location, no specifications just yet. The GFS suggests a slight moderation to the pattern after next weekend as we remain chilly but the storm track moves slightly further north and becomes a bit less active. Stay tuned for the fun!
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I should be posting the next Weather Xtreme Video around 7:30 to 8 tomorrow morning. I hope that you have a great weekend. Thanks for staying tuned to the Blog. Godspeed.
-Brian-
