An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes…
I must admit I was a little concerned this morning about the clearing that we forecast today, but it worked out nicely; most of Alabama is bathed in sunshine right now with temperatures in the 40s, right where they should be according to our morning forecast. Tonight will be clear with a light freeze, and then we warm up very nicely tomorrow with a high near 60 degrees.
Moisture will begin to return Sunday, and a few showers could show up Sunday afternoon, mainly over the western half of the state. The Gulf of Mexico will be wide open Monday, making for a mild and breezy day with a good chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm, especially for the northern counties of the state.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TUESDAY: No doubt the synoptic scale features favor a severe weather threat for the Southeast U.S. Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday night, but the magnitude of the event will be determined by mesoscale features that we simply can’t determine right now. I have seen surface based CAPE values over 1,000 j/kg on some runs, but the 12Z GFS shows a SBCAPE of only around 400 j/kg here. I think those higher CAPE values are more realistic since a southerly flow will be established a good 48 hours before the event, giving ample time for higher dewpoint air to flow in here from the south.
See the Weather Xtreme video for the EHI and 0 to 1 km helicity graphics; there should be ample shear available in the lower levels for rotating updrafts. But, we are still five days from the event, and we really won’t have a good grasp on it until Sunday or Monday. Just keep in mind strong to severe storms will be possible around here Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.
Cooler and drier air returns for Wednesday and Thursday of next week.
STORM ALERT 2008: Our annual severe weather awareness tour across Alabama continues… the next stop will be the Anniston City Meeting Center next Thursday at 7:00; from there will have shows in Northport, Lineville, and Moody. See the details on this year’s show, and the schedule here. We hope to see you along the way!
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.
I enjoyed seeing all of the residents at the Regency Retirement Community in Birmingham this afternoon… we had lots of fun together; I thank them for inviting me. Brian Peters will have the Weather Xtreme videos here over the weekend; my next one will be posted bright and early Monday morning at 7:00. Enjoy the weekend!
