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WARMING UP: A nice warm-up is in store for Alabama in the days ahead; a good chance we reach the low 80s by Thursday and Friday as a pattern flip brings warm air back into the Deep South. And, along the way, we will have some rain at times.
At this point we don’t expect any significant precipitation tonight, but a few showers could show up tomorrow afternoon as an impulse in the zonal flow approaches. Showers will be a little more likely tomorrow night, and by Wednesday a few scattered thunderstorms could be involved. The NAM is printing 0.57″ for Birmingham during the next 72 hours, while the GFS shows 0.45″. Rain amounts will probably vary a good bit from town to town due to the scattered nature of the showers.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Both of these days look relatively dry and warm, with afternoon highs in the 80 to 83 degree range. Morning clouds will give way to afternoon sunshine both days, and the chance of an afternoon shower for any one spot looks very small. To the west, a major spring storm system will move out of the Rockies and will bring the risk of severe weather to eastern parts of Texas and Oklahoma by Friday evening.
OUR WEEKEND: Saturday still looks like an active weather day, with numerous showers and thunderstorms. The 12Z run of the GFS is a little weaker with the upper trough, but it still portrays a very dynamic system that will bring the risk of severe thunderstorms to Alabama. As always, the real extent of the severe weather threat depends on features found in the mesoscale, and we won’t be able to identify them until we get really close to the event. Timing is also difficult this far in advance; the GFS hits the best chance of rain and storms will come from about 9:00 a.m. until 3:00 p.m., but it is often too fast, and I would not be surprised if the main risk holds off until the afternoon and evening hours.
Sunday will be dry but sharply cooler; the 12Z GFS shows a high of 66 for Birmingham on Sunday, but thickness values suggest we might not get out of the 50s. The sky will clear on Sunday with sunshine by afternoon and a cool breeze.
LONG RANGE: The next system to watch is one that moves across the Deep South in the April 17-18 time frame; the GFS actually keeps the main surface low south of us with that system, which would mean little chance of severe weather. But, that is all voodoo at this point.
OUR DROUGHT: Watch the video for the graphic, but the Tennessee Valley is considered to be a in “extreme drought”, while the rest of North Alabama (and parts of Central Alabama) is in a “severe drought”. The severe drought is along and north of a line from near Butler to Clanton to Anniston. The rain deficit for Birmingham is now over ten inches (we only have 7 inches of rain so far this year; we should have a little over 17 inches by now), so we will take any rain we can get during the rest of April. Between the showers tomorrow and Wednesday, and our system on Saturday, it is possible that some parts of North Alabama could see a total of 2 inches or more. But, most places should see between 1 and 2 inches during the next seven days.
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I had a great time seeing the kindergarten kids at Mount Laurel Elementary School today; be watching for them on the KIDCAM today on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00! I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
