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Looks like a cloudy, wet, and relatively cool day tomorrow for much of Alabama. The NAM is printing 1.40″ for Birmingham, while the GFS is even wetter at 1.70″. Guess we might want to up the rain potential a bit for tomorrow… this kind of event is pretty rare for August in Alabama without a tropical system involved.
No tropical systems at work here, it is all in the mid-latitude westerlies, which are normally well to the north of here this time of the year. I note the NWS in Jackson has issued a flash flood watch for a good bit of their CWA (county warning area)… I doubt if we have any flooding issues here tomorrow with the ground able to soak up the expected rain.
I also see that SPC has introduced a slight risk of severe weather for parts of West Alabama; I really don’t expect much of a problem with severe storms due to the lack of instability.
If this rain event pans out as the models advertise, we won’t get out of the 70s tomorrow.
REST OF THE WEEK: The wave of low pressure will move to the east Wednesday, and drier air sinks into North Alabama. Looks like Wednesday and Thursday will be mostly dry with a warming trend; we should be close to 90 by Thursday afternoon. Just a small risk of a shower around here both days. We will bring in the chance of scattered showers and storms on Friday as moisture levels increase.
WEEKEND PEEK: Looks like a pretty moist airmass will sit over Alabama, meaning a chance of showers and storms both Saturday and Sunday. The 12Z run of the GFS hints the best coverage of showers will come on Sunday. Highs mostly in the mid to upper 80s.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: Still looks like a case of below average temperatures and above normal rain for the rest of August. Quite the opposite of last year.
TROPICS: Still watching wave one and wave two out in the Central Atlantic. The trailing wave looks better organized at this point. Some models really don’t develop the leading wave, including the GFDL and the GFS. The ones that do latch onto the system bring it to a point just north of Hispanolia at 120 hours. That would put it in a position to move through the Florida straights and into the Gulf of Mexico. But, more questions than answers on that one.
The GFDL turns wave number two north in about 96 hours; at that point it could turn left again toward the East Coast of the U.S., or continue the re-curve path into the open Atlantic. One way or another this one does not look like a Gulf of Mexico storm at this point.
Watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics and model output associated with these waves; both bear close watching in coming days.
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