The Wednesday afternoon edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes:
One logistical note since we have a huge spike in new viewers these days… I usually post this discussion a little before the video loads; the Weather Xtreme video has to render, and then we upload it to the server. It is ready most afternoons by 3:30 p.m… the blog discussion is often posted more than an hour before that. So, if you get the morning video just wait until 3:30 and you can see the updated one…
INTERESTING DAYS: We have three events we are looking at in the next seven days in this cold and unsettled pattern. As mentioned here in recent posts, there is serious danger of forecast errors, so keep the blog refreshed for updates in coming days. Things can change in a heartbeat in this pattern that is not easily handled by computer models and operational meteorologists. Having said that…
TONIGHT/TOMORROW: A mix of light rain and sleet is already falling in West Alabama, way ahead of schedule. Within the last hour we have had reports of sleet over East Mississippi in Eupora and Starkville from our team of Skywatchers. As I am writing this we are getting reports of sleet from Tuscaloosa.
The wave coming out of Texas will bring a wintry mix of weather to Alabama tonight and early tomorrow. At this point, it looks like the best chance of precipitation will come from about 6:00 tonight through 8:00 a.m. tomorrow.
It begins with a mix of light rain and sleet this evening. Our problem is this: the low level air is relatively dry; dewpoints and wet bulbs are below freezing, and as the precipitation begins we believe there will be some degree of evaporative cooling. There is a very real chance this will bring the temperature down to near 32 degrees after midnight tonight. This means there could be a period of light freezing rain late tonight, and in turn that could mean some scattered bridge icing.
The other factor is the wedge; cold air damming will bring cold air from the Northeast U.S. down the eastern slopes of the Appalachians, and some of that could move into East Alabama late tonight. The combination of the cold air in the wedge, and the upper wave moving in from the west could mean a little more significant bridge icing near the Georgia border after midnight in places like Roanoke, Wedowee, Heflin, and Piedmont.
Bottom line is this: this event tonight is NOT a major winter storm threat, but it might bring some light freezing rain late tonight, which in turn could cause some bridge icing, especially over the eastern half of the state. Can’t rule out a few slick spots on West Alabama bridges as well, however. I suggest you get up early tomorrow to check the blog (or ABC 33/40!) for an update on travel conditions.
The wintry mix will exit the state by mid-morning… as it moves on to the east. We should point out that bridge icing will also be an issue to the east in places like Atlanta, Athens, Greenville (SC), Asheville, and Charlotte.
SUNDAY: The second issue will come with a strong storm over the weekend. Looks like more snow and ice for Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas Saturday, and that will move into Alabama on Sunday. Sure looks like there will be enough warm air advection for all rain for the immediate I-20 corridor, but there is some chance that snow or ice could be a problem for the far northern part of Alabama, up in the Tennessee Valley. Most of the precipitation will come Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. You know the deal; I am like a football coach and I like to take this one game at a time. We need to get tonight’s wave on by and we can focus on the Sunday system more tomorrow.
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK: The third threat will come in the Tuesday or Wednesday time frame next week (January 23-24). I think the GFS has no clue; another system coming out of the Southwest U.S. has the potential to spin up another winter storm from Texas into the Deep South. Way to early to even think about details on this one; just be aware the potential is there for some part of the Deep South to have some winter weather problems.
Back to tonight’s system… I am watching the Tuscaloosa SKYCAM observation closely… the temp is 42 with a dewpoint of 26. Will be interesting to see if West Alabama can get down to the freezing mark tonight. I get the idea Tuscaloosa might settle close to 33 or 34; the greatest potential for 32 or lower could be from Birmingham on eastward, especially over the far eastern counties closer to the wedge. But again, we will have to watch for bridge icing over the entire area late tonight.
SKYWATCHERS: We are getting some great reports from our Skywatchers in real time; they communicate with us via an Instant Message network. If you want to be a part of the program, learn more here.
I sure enjoyed seeing the second graders at Trace Crossings Elementary in Hoover today; look for them on the KIDCAM on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00 this afternoon… we will have lots of updates through the rest of the afternoon and tonight here on the blog, so stay tuned. The next Weather Xtreme video will be loaded by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…
