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Our parade of storm systems will continue well into April; looks like we will have rain and storms to deal with every two or three days for the couple of weeks. And, inevitably along the way we will have a few severe weather risks.
TOMORROW: While a few showers could break out during the day tomorrow, it looks like much of the rain will fall from about 6:00 p.m. tomorrow through 6:00 a.m. Wednesday. The NAM is printing only 0.27″ with this feature, while the GFS is wetter with 0.99″, and is probably closer to the truth. The risk of severe weather is minimal here, with SPC maintain a slight risk of severe storms over the southwest corner of Alabama around Mobile Bay.
We will have a break in the rain on Wednesday… with some sun possible by afternoon.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: A more potent system will impact Alabama later in the week, and it seems like severe weather could be an issue here Thursday night into early Friday morning. The 12Z model runs keep us dry much of the day Thursday with some sunshine and very warm temperatures. The GFS is printing 83 for Birmingham on Thursday, and this in turn create a very unstable airmass, with surface base CAPE values over 2,000 j/kg around here by 6:00 p.m. Thursday. Seems like we might be setting up for all modes of severe weather Thursday night with very good dynamics, instability, and shear. Let’s get tomorrow night’s system out of here and we can really be more confident on forecasting the Thursday night event.
WEEKEND PREVIEW: The sky should clear Friday afternoon, and Saturday looks like a very nice day with ample sunshine and a high in the mid 70s. Then, yet another wave will bring showers and strong storms in here on Sunday. Too early to be specific about the severe weather threat, but it certainly is possible based on the pattern and the time of the year.
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I had a great time today visiting students at West End Elementary in Altoona, and Hall-Kent Elementary in Homewood. Be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 and 6:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…
