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RAIN AND STORMS TO KICK OFF OUR WEEKEND: A warm, humid blanket of air covers Alabama this morning, and we are projecting temperatures up into the mid to upper 80s today, not far from the record high of 91 set back in 1941. The sun should peek out at times, and a gusty southwest wind will develop ahead of a storm system over the nation’s mid-section. This will not feel like an October day.
A few scattered showers could pop up this afternoon, but the most organized band of rain and storms will move in here tonight and tomorrow. The Storm Prediction Center has now placed a larger part of Alabama under a severe weather risk for tonight; areas north of a line from Mobile to Montgomery to Heflin could see a few strong to severe storms tonight. The primary risk will come from damaging straight line winds from bowing segments within the line of storms. We note instability values this morning to 500 j/kg already as far north as Nashville, and those values will rise steadily as the air warms today. This will be a night when all high school officials will need to pay close attention to the weather during all of the football games across the state.
The rain will continue into the day tomorrow before diminishing tomorrow afternoon. Rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely, with heaver amounts in a few spots. The NWS in Huntsville has issued a flash flood watch for their counties in the Tennessee Valley. We should also note tomorrow will be much cooler; many places will stay in the 60s all day with occasional rain.
SUNDAY: The best chance of showers will move down into South Alabama Sunday; we will mention just an outside risk of a stray shower around here. I don’t think we see much sunshine, however.
FOOTBALL WEATHER: For tonight’s high school football games, rain and storms are likely, especially over North and West Alabama, with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s during the games. Tomorrow, Auburn travels to Fayetteville to play the Arkansas Razorbacks at 11:00; the weather will be cool and dry with a sunny sky and a temperature in the low to mid 50s at kickoff, rising into the upper 50s by the second half of the game. And, Alabama will play Ole Miss at Oxford (2:30 kickoff). While the heaviest rain should be over by gametime, a few lingering showers are possible. The kickoff temperature will be near 65 degrees, dropping into the 50s by the final whistle.
NEXT WEEK: The front moves northward as a warm front, and we will need to mention a chance of showers Monday. The 00Z GFS keeps the front around on Tuesday, hinting at some rain at times as well. If the 12Z GFS continues that trend we will need to go ahead and mention it in the forecast. Wednesday and Thursday look dry, but another good rain event seems likely for the next of next week. Watch the Weather Xtreme video for details.
TROPICS: All is quiet across the Atlantic basin; Henri dissipated yesterday in the Atlantic due to strong winds aloft.
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I am on the road this morning to Fayette County; I will be doing a weather program at Berry Elementary School. I will be back in the office by early afternoon, and the next Weather Xtreme video should be posted here by 3:30. Enjoy the day!
