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We still believe the greatest risk of strong to severe thunderstorms for Alabama will come from about 12:00 noon until 8:00 p.m. The lack of any serious mesoscale surface boundary today will probably reduce the tornado threat, but we sure can’t rule out a tornado warning or two today as the storms will be coming through at the time of maximum instability.
Large hail and damaging winds will be primary concern, and everyone will need to be close to a good source of weather information today.
The NAM remains on the dry side, showing only 0.38″ for Birmingham during the next 84 hours. The GFS is printing 0.62″; we have the potential for one-half to three-quarters of an inch of rain in our forecast.
TOMORROW: The rain should end early in the day, and there is a good chance the sky becomes partly sunny as a dry slot of air in the mid levels moves over Alabama. Temperatures will be a little cooler; look for a high in the upper 60s tomorrow.
COLD AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY: Sunday still looks blustery and downright cold compared to recent days. We will have a hard time getting out of the 40s, and some scattered light rain is possible. You can’t ignore the very low thickness values, and I really think we need to consider a chance of snow flurries for Sunday night and Monday morning, especially for areas northeast of Birmingham. Gotta love snow flakes in mid April.
We will be down in the low to mid 30s at daybreak Monday, but frost is not likely due to clouds and wind. The coldest morning will be Tuesday; we still project lows from 25 in the coldest valleys to 35 on the ridge tops. Growers will need to protect tender plants and vegetation from any damage due to the cold weather.
A warming trend begins Tuesday afternoon, and the next freeze threat will be sometime in the fall.
VOODOO LAND: Looks like the severe weather threats will calm down during the latter half of April as the storm track shifts a bit to the north. Temperatures will be at or a little above average values if the GFS trends are correct.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.
I am headed out to Gardendale Elementary this morning for a weather program… J.B. will keep the blog updated with fresh information through the day, and I will crank out another Weather Xtreme video this afternoon if the weather isn’t too active by then!
