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SOUTHERN STREAM TAKES OVER: Now this is what you expect during an El Nino cycle. A screaming southern jet; big time rain and mountain snow for California and parts of the Southwest U.S., and ultimately lots of rain and storms for Alabama. But today will remain mostly dry, with a mix of sun and clouds and a high up in the mid 60s. Clouds should slowly increase as the day rolls on.
STORM NUMBER ONE: Rain will break out across Alabama tomorrow as a surface boundary slowly pushes north as a warm front. The rain will heavier and more widespread tomorrow night, with a few thunderstorms could be involved as well. We don’t expect any severe weather around here tomorrow night, but SPC does have a slight risk of severe weather for the far southwest counties of Alabama (Mobile, Baldwin, Monroe, Washington, and Escambia).
That MCS will move east of Alabama Thursday morning, and there is a chance the sun will pop out during the midday hours. If this happens, temperatures will head toward 70, and surface based CAPE values will rise to well over 1,000 j/kg. Then, a surface boundary passing through could bring one more round of storms Thursday afternoon or Thursday evening, and those could pack a punch. SPC indicates they will raise a slight severe weather risk (their standard risk) for this part of Alabama if the models keep this trend up. We expect one to two inches of rain from this first system. See the Weather Xtreme video for complete details.
We will be dry and mild Friday with a decent amount of sunshine and a high in the 60s.
STORM NUMBER TWO: Saturday will be a mild and breezy day with clouds on the increase, but it looks dry for now. Then, another generous round of showers and storms will blow in here Sunday. SPC has pretty much all of Alabama, except for the extreme northern counties, under a severe weather risk Sunday. It will be your usual early season high shear low CAPE event, and it is too early to be specific. Let’s get storm number one out of here and we can really focus on the weekend system. This one looks like it will bring another one to two inches of rain to our state.
NEXT WEEK: We turn colder Monday and Tuesday, but nothing seriously cold. Looks like highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s, and there is some hint of snow flurries Tuesday with a strong vorticity max rolling down the back side of the upper trough over the east. Then, temperatures moderate by Wednesday and Thursday. Another storm system is due in here toward the end of the week as the active southern stream stays in place.
FEBRUARY: Seems like every operational run of the GFS flip/flops as we look into early February, but the AO continues to show a strong down spike, and we have to figure we can expect sharply colder air at some point early in the month. We just don’t know how cold, or how long it lasts. Stay tuned…
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I am headed down to the Rick and Bubba teleport/studio this morning; I will spend the 8:00 to 9:00 hour with Bubba (Rick is off today), and don’t you know that will be a ton of fun. You can watch their live stream here. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 3:30 or so… enjoy the day!
