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RIGHT NOW: Strong to severe storms continue to form over Tennessee, where a severe thunderstorm watch is in effect. Here in Alabama, surface based instability values are in the 2,000 to 3,000 j/kg range, but warm air aloft associated with the upper ridge is keeping us capped, and no storms have formed in our state. We will maintain the risk of a few showers or storms this evening, especially over the Tennessee Valley. A shower or storm is still possible as far south as I-20 tonight as the ridge begins to break down.
THE WEEKEND: Not much change in our thinking. Warm and humid tomorrow and Sunday with highs in the mid 80s. Occasionally cloudy and the risk of scattered showers and storms. Most of them, but not all, will come during the afternoon and evening hours. The chance of any one spot getting wet around here tomorrow and Sunday is about one in three. Unfortunately, I can’t tell you exactly when and where the showers and storms will form until they get on the radar screen, but if you have something planned outdoors just understand you might have to dodge a few showers or thunderstorms.
NEXT WEEK: Monday should feature a general increase in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms thanks to some upper support moving in from the west. A drying trend begins Tuesday; for now we have not forecast any rain Tuesday through Friday of next week, but watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see hints in the 12Z GFS that the front might stall around here, prolonging some risk of showers into Tuesday, and maybe even Wednesday. Let’s watch future runs before we make any changes.
LONV RANGE: Still no sign of any big severe weather threat here through the end of May with the primary jet to the west and north. Temperatures should remain above average, with rainfall below average thanks to a mean upper ridge.
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I had a great time today seeing all of the kids at Townley Junior High School up in Walker County; be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. My next Weather Xtreme video will be posted Monday morning by 7:00… Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!
