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CHANGEABLE WEATHER: Pretty interesting and challenging forecast this week… today we begin with clear and cool conditions across the state with temperatures mostly in the 40s. Clouds will increase during the day with an afternoon high close to 70.
TONIGHT/TOMORROW: A shower is possible late tonight, after midnight, in advance of an approaching upper trough. This feature will bring widespread rain to Alabama tomorrow, along with the chance of a few thunderstorms. The trough will take on a negative tilt tomorrow, but it looks like the lack of instability will prevent any significant chance of severe weather across Alabama. The GFS prints 0.66″ of rain here tomorrow, which should pretty close to being correct. Some spots could see up to one inch during the day.
WEDNESDAY: This should be a generally dry day with a mix of sun and clouds and only an outside risk of a shower. Temperatures will be very mild with an upper ridge developing across the Southeast U.S.; highs should be well into the 70s. Some South Alabama communities could reach the low 80s.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: A very deep upper trough to the west will bring the risk of severe weather to states west of Alabama on these days; see the Weather Xtreme video for details on that threat. Here in our state, these two days look rather warm for late October thanks to the upper ridge. And, it is likely that a few showers and storms will be moving through, but trying to time the rain at this point is difficult due to poor model consistency. I don’t think the rain will be continuous, and the sun might peak out at times. The main band of showers and storms is due in here Friday night, and some strong storms could be involved. The GFS actually shunts the main dynamics a little north of Alabama as the upper ridge remains strong, so hopefully that will prevent a major severe weather threat. We will fine tune the end of the week forecast as the week rolls along.
THE WEEKEND: Rain and storms should end early Saturday morning, and the sky becomes partly sunny during the day Halloween. Last week, there was an idea on the table that some cold air would drop down into the Deep South, but that idea seems to be off the table now with the ridge holding strong. The GFS is printing a warm 78 degrees here on Saturday, which might be a little too warm, but low to mid 70s is certainly likely. Sunday looks like a dry and pleasant day with a high back in the 70s along with a decent amount of sunshine.
Again, this is a fairly complex forecast that will probably involve some changes this week, so stay tuned.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. Tonight, it’s a fond look back at one of the best weather television shows ever: PBS’s AM Weather from the 70s and 80s. Join the panel, Joan von Ahn, Carl Weiss, and NWA President-elect Steve Zubrick for a trip down a meteorological memory lane. The show should be posted by 11:30 tonight.
STORM ALERT XTREME: Want to be trained as a storm spotter? Want to join the ABC 33/40 Skywatcher team? Our annual training event, Storm Alert Xtreme, is coming up on Saturday November 14 at the BJCC during the annual Birmingham International Auto Show. You will be trained by the best SKYWARN trainer in the nation, our own Brian Peters (he has trained over 6,000 Alabama storm spotters over the years). We encourage all of our Skywatchers to attend this every year; you simply cannot get enough training. We will begin at 9:30, and be out by 3:30. And, everyone that attends Storm Alert Xtreme gets free admission to the Alabama International Auto Show. There is no admission charge, and no need to register. Just show up, but get there early for a good seat. We had a packed house last year.
This morning I will be speaking to the members of the St. Vincent’s East Auxiliary… the afternoon Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 3:30. Enjoy the day!