* Will become a powerful hurricane.
* Convection near the eye now very intense
* Pressure has dropped 24 millibars in only 24 hours
* Now will be moving over extremely deep warm water NW Catibbean and Southern Gulf
* May possibly weaken a bit before landfall
* Projected landfall after midnight Monday night on Central Louisiana coast near of west of Morgan City.
* Then passing across SW Louisiana between Lafayette and Lake Charles
* Projected to be in east edge of Texas
* Will become a large major hurricane over the Gulf
* Large ridge over Ohio Vally may cause his track to take a left bend
* May slow in forward speed after land fall and take a left bend
* This poses major flooding for louisiana and east Texas
* May reach his most powerful intensity about midday Sunday with sustained winds 130 mph with gusts to near 160 mph.
* If the projected landfall holds true, this would lessen greatly the effect for Alabama
CAUTION
Cone of concern is much wider than the projected center path so people from Galveston eastward to near the Mississippi/Alabama border west of Mobile.
NWS in Mobile is calling for possible tropical storm conditions for the Alabama Coast (including Gulf Shores and Orange Beach) Sunday night into Tuesday. Labor Day, for example, may have east winds gusting to about 45 mph.
BIRMINGHAM
If this track holds true, no major side effects here. There will be an increase in number of showers and thunderstorms early in the week but we should escape the type problems we had with Ivan, Opal and Katrina to name a few. Og course, a significant shift eastward at landfall could change that outlook. (unlikely)
