Karen weakened to a tropical depression this morning. As the system has continued to weaken, it has been declassified on the afternoon advisory package. It is now an area of low pressure with disorganized thunderstorms. The system will be monitored for signs of regeneration. There is still some potential that if it holds together, it will move into an area where upper level winds are conducive to re-intensification and then it could be an East Coast problem. Here is the text of the NHC discussion.
THE SHEAR HAS BEATEN KAREN. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT KAREN NO
LONGER HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND BASICALLY DOES NOT QUALIFY AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. HOWEVER…THERE IS STILL A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH STRONG SQUALLS IN A FEW CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE…
OR THE REMNANTS OF KAREN…ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS.
AT THIS POINT…I AM NOT GOING TO SPECULATE IF KAREN IS GOING TO
REGENERATE OR NOT. MODELS HAVE THE LUXURY OF GOING BACK AND FORTH
IN STRENGTHENING OR WEAKENING KAREN IN EACH RUN…BUT I DON’T. THE
BEST WE CAN DO IS TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM CLOSELY…AND IF IT COMES
BACK…WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION…REINITIATE ADVISORIES.
FOR NOW…THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON KAREN. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
The convection with Tropical Storm Melissa flared up a bit today despite the presence of cooler sea surface temperatures and wind shear. The wind shear will increase as the storm moves west northwestward in the far eastern Atlantic. Melissa will likely dissipate within three days and poses no threat to land.
