From the Birmingham NWS
“Mesoscale projections for 21Z (3 p.m.)…0-6 km wind shear will continue to increase over the northern counties…to an unbelievable 90+ knots. However…instability (MUCAPE) is projected now to weaken over the northern counties (to less than 100 J/kg) and increase over the south. 500 J/kg expected over Dallas and Lowndes counties by 3 p.m. 0-3 SRH values expected to increase over the far eastern counties…with values greater than 400 m2/s2 from Cherokee County south to Montgomery County. Significant dry punch from the west has already lowered surface dew points into the 30s over the far western sections of Alabama.”
BOTTOM LINE: Looks like like we might escape with no serious problems today, but we will need to keep an eye on the eastern side of the state through the afternoon where sufficient instability and helicity could combine for some brief problems…
