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HOTTER: Most Alabama reporting stations yesterday failed to reach 90 degrees due to clouds and showers, but today and tomorrow will feature hotter afternoons, with afternoon highs up in the low to mid 90s. With warmer air aloft associated with the upper ridge nosing in here from the west, we figure any showers or storms that fire up will be widely separated. Pretty typical mid-summer weather for the Deep South.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: The ridge breaks down again, and a long wave upper trough will form over the eastern U.S. late in the week. This should bring a noticeable increase in the number of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday. Most communities should see two day rain totals over one inch, with potential for amounts over two inches. And, highs will drop back into the 87 to 90 degree range with the clouds and showers.
WEEKEND: The 00Z GFS is faster with the surface front, and it brings drier air all the way down to Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, and Anniston by midday Saturday. Understand dry air is pretty rare around here in mid-July, so we will keep a chance of showers and storms in the forecast for now, but if the 12Z run of the GFS is similar, we will trend drier. Sunday looks rain-free for most of Alabama, with lower humidity and a high only in the mid 80s. Should be a surprisingly pleasant day for the middle of summer. And, nights will be cooler. The GFS is printing 62 for Birmingham both Sunday and Monday morning, that means the cooler valleys will reach the 50s. There will be a nice hint of fall in the air if this works out.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: We stay in dry air Monday, but muggy conditions should return by mid-week. Interesting to note the GFS hints at a surface low forming just south of the Florida panhandle, then moving northeast. However, still no sign of any serious tropical trouble through the next two weeks based on model output. And, no sign of any long lasting period of really excessive heat.
AT THE BEACH: Expect about 6 to 8 hours of sunshine each day through Friday with a few scattered showers and storms each day. Highs along the immediate coast will remain in the upper 80s, with low 90s inland. The sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab late yesterday was up to 88 degrees (F).
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Today I will speaking at the Birmingham Museum of Art… I will head to the office after that and the next Weather Xtreme video should be posted by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
