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THE ALABAMA WEATHER STORY: The 12Z models are trending drier tomorrow and Friday, as Alabama gets in the sinking air around the periphery of Ike. We will still mention some risk of showers and storms on both days, but it looks like they will be pretty widely scattered.
OUR WEEKEND: An upper ridge should mean hot and mostly dry weather Saturday and Sunday; highs in the low 90s with only isolated afternoon showers. This upper ridge will also push moisture from Ike well to the west and north of Alabama, so the first few days of next week are now looking mostly dry with temperatures holding above normal values for mid-September. Some hint that a short wave will dent the ridge down a bit by Wednesday with an increased risk of scattered showers and storms.
EYES ON IKE: Not much change in the thinking on Ike after a review of the 12Z models. Models agree nicely with the NHC track; all taking Ike into the middle Texas coast near Matagorda Bay late Friday night or early Saturday morning as a major hurricane. This will push a storm surge of 12 to 20 feet into Matagorda Bay, with potential for very significant damage. This part of the Texas coast is between Corpus Christi and Galveston.
Once inland, Ike will curve around the periphery of the upper high, with the moisture aimed at Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and Illinois after leaving Texas. Flooding is likely along the path with a few isolated tornadoes possible to the right of the center of circulation. All of this will be well to the west and north of Alabama.
VOODOO LAND: Lots of cold air up north… some of our friends around the Great Lakes saw their first freeze of the season earlier today. Still no sign of a favorable upper air pattern to bring that down our way for the next two weeks.
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I had a great time visiting with the residents of Chateau Vestavia this morning… thanks so much for the invitation to speak. I will have the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…