About to go to press with the afternoon forecast package and thought I would give you an update. I won’t change any of the particulars on the official forecast for now even though the chance of precpitation at midweek is less likely if you believe the GFS model.
At 1 p.m., conditions were fairly nice across North and Central Alabama. Skies had become mostly cloudy, but temperatures were in the 50s.
Regional radar composites show rain up into Southwest Alabama, but it is apparently not reaching the ground yet. At noon, rain had reached as far east as a line from Pine Bluff, Arkansas to Greenville, Mississippi, then onto Hattiesburg and Gulfport. This activity is associated with a decent lilttle upper level shortwave trough that is heading our way, weakening as it goes. A surface low is forming over the nothern Gulf south of Louisiana.
The shortwave will help to deepen the upper trough in the northern branch of the jetstream. The southern branch continues to be quite active.
As the Gulf low lifts out to the northeast, colder air will begin to filter into Alabama during the night. There may be enough moisture left over North Alabama to allow the rain to changeover to snow before it ends ealry on Sunday morning. We will have to see how the atmospheric profile shapes up tonight, but people north and west of a line from Fayette to Cullman to Fort Payne should be alert to the possibility of a changeover late tonight with the best chance for frozen precipitation north of a line from Hamilton to Decatur to Scottsboro. At this time, we do not expect any travel problems, but people planning travel across North Alabama late tonight or early Sunday morning should pay close attention to changing conditions.
Tomorrow will be miserable day, with temperatures in the 30s and a strong northwest wind at 12-25 mph, pushing wind chills into the 20s. The day will start cloudy, with a few snow flurries possible over the northeastern quarter of the state. Skies will clear during the day howver and some sunshine will return, but readings will not be able to climb to the 40 degree mark.
Then get ready for a hard freeze tomorrow night, with temperatures dropping into the teens in most locations. We will call for an official low of 18 at the Birmingham airport, but places like Gasden, Pinson and the normally colder locations of Northwest and North Alabama may see lows in the 10-15 degree range. Take precautions to protect animals, livestock and tender vegetation. Check on neighbors, friends and family to make sure they are able to keep warm. Make sure pipes are protected.
Monday will be cold and dry.
Tuesday will feature a developing Gulf low and its incipient battle with a large Arctic high over the Central part of the country. The last three GFS model runs have shunted thie Gulf low far to our south, precluding any precipitation here and keeping us dry and cold. Earlier runs had predicted some light snow over about the northern quarter of Alabama, with rain to the south. We will just have to wait and see, as there is no way to accurately predict what is going to happen that far in advance.
We appear to be locked into a cold pattern through much of the coming two weeks with a few other winter weather battles shaping up.
Stay dry tonight and warm tomorrow…
