Showers are increasing across Alabama this morning, especially over the North and West/Central portions. This includes some moderate to heavy showers over parts of Lamar, Pickens and West Tuscaloosa Counties. Little or no lightning indicated at this time and the showers are moving toward the ENE.
The bigger picture shows some heavy showers over parts of NE Mississippi near Tupelo and especially from the very center of Mississippi southward between Meridian and Jackson to the SW corner of the state. Some lightning is indicated in those areas.
There has not been a Severe Thunderstorm Warning in any of this activity in nearly five hours.
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKS
The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for today and tonight all the way from Central and South Texas eastward to affect most of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. There is no immediate threat in Alabama. Any storms that would become severe would be later today and tonight.
The SBC also has Alabama under a Slight Risk for Thursday and Friday and into early Saturday morning. The way things are shaping up, the more significant risk could come later Friday and overnight Friday night into early Saturday morning. The SPC hints that if everything comes together, there is a possibility of an upgrade to at least Moderate Risk during that timeframe Friday/Saturday.
We are going to have a very busy three days, so we will have frequent updates as the events unfold. One thing that it is important not to overlook is the heavy rain potential. There are already some Flash Flood Watches in Mississippi and, in the next 24 hours, over 3 inches could occur across North and Central Alabama, including the Birmingham area. Model output hints at as much as 6 inches for the Tuscaloosa/Birmingham/Anniston area southward for the entire storm period. This includes as much as 6.70 inches in part of East/Central Alabama and possibly 9 inches in the Mobile/Gulf Shores/Dauphin Island/Pensacola area.
Remember, this is overall computerized guidance and those values can change. It does, however, seem near certain that we will have to deal with some flash flood problems along with possible severe thunderstorms over the next several days. Even river flooding may enter into the picture.
