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WET AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND: The overall synoptic weather pattern just isn’t changing much; we have a stacked low (surface and aloft) around Monroe, Louisiana, and we stay on the moist, east side with very deep moisture in place. The devil is in the details; small scale features that can bring low level convergence and rounds of showers and storms. As we all know, those are very hard to identify and forecast, so we will pretty much have to broad brush the forecast with a good chance of occasional showers and storms for the next five days.
The rain won’t be continuous, and the sun will peek out at times, but just be aware that a tropical downpour is possible at any time, and the rain could be occasionally heavy due to the pure tropical nature of this airmass. Walk outside this morning and it it just as if you were standing on the Gulf Coast with the sand between your toes.
Once again, SPC keeps low end severe weather probabilities in place for Alabama and Mississippi, but widespread severe weather is not expected. And, while a few flash flood warnings are very possible, a major, widespread flood event is not likely. We note that Lowndes and Clay counties in Mississippi (Columbus and West Point) are under a flash flood warning until 7:15 this morning.
The guys at HPC are forecasting additional rain amounts of 3 inches through Sunday night, and that is a pretty good average figure, but we all know numbers will vary from neighborhood to neighborhood due to the convective nature of the rain.
FOOTBALL: We will have the specific forecasts for high school and college football games here tomorrow, but no doubt there will be a chance of showers at just about every stadium here in Alabama.
NEXT WEEK: Things get interesting next week as a long wave upper trough carves out over the eastern half of the nation. Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see the 00Z GFS is now showing a very strong vort max in the base of the trough Tuesday, which would hint at a severe weather outbreak for Alabama during the day Tuesday. Haven’t had to worry about that in a long time, but it is certainly possible in September. Then, a nice surge of cooler and drier air arrives by Wednesday; this will get us down in the 50s during the early morning hours with noticeably lower humidity levels. The latter half of next week looks dry and very pleasant.
FIVE YEARS AGO TODAY: The center of Hurricane Ivan moved on shore near Gulf Shores around 300 AM on Thursday, September 16, 2004. Maximum sustained winds at landfall were estimated to be near 130 MPH, with a minimum pressure of 943 millibars. Hurricane Ivan will compare with the worst hurricanes to ever to affect the Alabama Gulf Coastal Region since 1900, including Frederic in September 1979, Opal in October 1995, and the September 1926 Hurricane. Hurricane Ivan moved inland maintaining hurricane strength to near Uniontown (Perry County) around 11 AM. Ivan was downgraded to a Tropical Storm at 1 PM CDT as it was approaching Centreville (Bibb County). Ivan then tracked across the Birmingham Metropolitan Area between 4 and 8 PM. Ivan remained a Tropical Storm until reaching northeast Alabama, where it weakened to a Tropcial Depression around 10 PM. Ivan produced estimated maximum winds of 60 to 80 mph generally southwest of line from Prattville to Livingston. A few spots may have reached 90 mph in this area. Most other locations across central alabama had estimated maximum wind speeds of 50 to 60 mph, with a few isolated spots reaching 75 mph. Tree and power line damage was extensive.
It was a day I will never forget; we had two of our crew members at Gulf Shores stranded on the beach, riding out the storm in a high rise building adjacent to the Alabama State Park. I will write more about this later today or tonight.
TROPICS TODAY: Very, very quiet. No sign of any serious organization across the Atlantic basin.
FOLLOW ALONG: Here are our weather team Twitter accounts….
James Spann
Jason Simpson
Ashley Brand
J.B. Elliott
Bill Murray
Brian Peters
Dr. Tim Coleman
E-Warn (Alabama severe weather watches and warnings)
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon… enjoy the day!
