TRACK FORECAST
Here is the official NHC track. Notice the 5 day position. Although 5 days errors are very large, as evidenced by the cone of uncertainty, shown in the hatched white on the graphic, it is interesting to note the storm would be near Key West poised to move into the Gulf. Lots of uncertainty here. The models are kinds of all over the board.
Here are the spaghetti plots…
INTENSITY FORECAST
Ana is undergoing shear right now, primarily because it is in a fast low level flow. Upper winds are actually light. It remains to be seen if that shear will weaken. Ana is not forecast to become a hurricane, reaching maximum intensity of 60 mph before it runs into Hispaniola, a famous tropical cyclone killer. It is interesting to note that the 12z run of the GFS didn’t even recognize Ana as a closed low.
Here is the text of the official advisory…
000
WTNT32 KNHC 152033
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 PM AST SAT AUG 15 2009
…ANA MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD…TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE
DUTCH LEEWARD ISLANDS…
AT 5 PM AST…2100 UTC…THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLAND ANTILLES
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN…SABA…AND ST.
EUSTATIUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS…THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS…AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THESE AREAS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 50.0 WEST OR ABOUT
805 MILES…1300 KM…EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH…28 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF ANA NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH…65 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB…29.68 INCHES.
…SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…14.4N 50.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
