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Lots of blog traffic between midnight and 5:00… I doubt if any other local TV weather blog in the nation has writers that keep the posts rolling all night long. Thanks to J.B. and Jason for their sleepless work. You can see some rain totals on Jason’s post… my total in northern Shelby County is 0.91″, and I am thankful for every drop. You gotta love a nice nocturnal batch of showers and storms in a pure tropical airmass. The total at our Inverness SKYCAM site (the Wingate Inn along U.S. 280) is up to 1.07″.
LOOKING AHEAD: The 00Z upper air sounding from Birmingham shows precipitable water still sky high, at 2.14″, so we expect another day of scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Most of them will come during the afternoon and evening hours; some will linger late into the night. There will be intervals of sunshine, and highs today will be generally from 88 to 91 degrees.
That is pretty much what we expect tomorrow as the moist air goes nowhere. There is a surface boundary north of Alabama, that represents the leading edge of much drier and somewhat cooler air, but I still say the front runs out of gas before bringing any dry air to Alabama. The 00Z GFS looks pretty moist all the way through the Labor Day weekend, so scattered showers and storms will stay in the forecast through Monday. Highs over the holiday weekend will be in the 86 to 90 degree range for the most part, and as usual the best chance of a shower or storm will come during the afternoon and evening hours.
You can go over to the seven day forecast discussion on the main 33/40 web page for specific football weather forecasts, but you might want to take the rain gear if you are going to a high school game tonight or tomorrow night, or the Alabama or Auburn home opener Saturday night.
LONG RANGE: A nice chunk of cool Canadian air drops into the northern U.S. in the September 7-9 time frame, but the 00Z GFS keeps all of it north of Alabama, so we will have to wait later in the month to get that first really cool night of the fall season.
TROPICS: Lots of action now…
*The tropical low east of Jacksonville could become a tropical depression today or tomorrow. Thing thing will meander around for a few days, and the models finally kick the system out to the northeast with no U.S. landfall by early next week.
*The tropical wave east of the Windward Islands could become a tropical depression during the next 48 hours. Most of the models move this into the Caribbean in coming days, but not all of them develop it into a tropical cyclone. The water is pretty warm across the Caribbean, and I think this one has a chance.
*A tropical disturbance in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico could develop into a tropical depression before moving into Mexico. Some of the models keep this feature identified across Mexico, and then bring it back to tropical cyclone status in the Pacific. Then, the GFS has been moving this system northward, toward Baja California and the Southwest U.S.
We will be watching the tropical waters closely in coming days…
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