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MUGGY MORNING: At 5:00 this morning Birmingham is reporting 75 degrees with a dewpoint of 67, so it sure “doesn’t feel right” out there for late October. And, with a very vigorous mid-latitude cyclone wrapping up over the Upper Midwest, we will very well have a risk of strong to severe storms later today and tonight.
Let’s go to a “FAQ” (frequently asked questions) format since so many folks are asking about today’s severe weather threat…
WHEN? A tornado watch is just about touching the northwest corner of Alabama already this morning; that watch covers much of North Mississippi and West Tennessee. We will need to adjust the timeline up a bit. It now looks like the greatest risk of severe weather for North-Central Alabama will be from around 12:00 noon to 12:00 midnight. The main line of storms will initially impact Northwest Alabama, and we will have to for the discrete supercell storms that form ahead of the line during the peak of the daytime heating process.
WHERE: SPC has a their standard risk of severe in place (slight risk) for that part of Alabama generally along and north of U.S. 80, or north of a line from Demopolis to Selma to Montgomery to Opelika. A few isolated severe storms are possible over South Alabama, however. We note that SPC has a high risk defined well to the north, over much of Indiana and parts of Ohio and MIchigan ahead of the very deep and intense surface cyclone. We do believe there will be enough low level helicity for a few isolated tornadoes as far south as Alabama.
WHAT? All modes of severe weather will be possible. The main threat with the squall line will be form large hail and damaging straight line winds, but a few isolated tornadoes are certainly possible. The greatest risk of a tornado will be in the storms that form ahead of the line, but small embedded tornadoes are certainly possible within the line, just like this past Sunday night.
It is also important to note today will be very windy due to the pressure gradient ahead of the storm system. Winds will be in the 15 to 30 mph range all day, with gusts to 40 mph. On the ridges, some spots could even see a 50 mph gust away from storms. It will be a very windy day.
HOW MUCH RAIN? Additional rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely. The band of storms will move through slowly tonight, and will persist into the morning hours tomorrow. Some isolated spots will see over three inches of rain. That is something we really need.
HOW TO PREPARE? You know the drill here… be sure you have a way of hearing severe weather watches and warnings. Never rely on outdoor warning sirens; have a NOAA Weather Radio that is programmed for your county. Don’t forget we offer WeatherCall, a service that sends warnings to your phone. And, identify the place where you will go in the event a warning is issued. Most people that die in tornadoes in Alabama are in either cars or mobile homes. In site built homes, pick a spot that is a small room (hall, closet, bathroom) on the lowest floor, near the center of the house, and away from windows.
TOMORROW: Showers and storms will shift into South Alabama by afternoon as drier air begins to arrive, and the sun might even break out by afternoon.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: The coolest air so far this season arrives. The high Thursday will drop into the low 70s with a partly sunny sky, and we won’t get past the mid 60s Friday despite maximum available sunshine. The weekend will be delightful for trick or treating, football, NASCAR races at Talladega, or anything else you want to do. The high Saturday will be close to 70, followed by mid 70s Sunday. We note the coldest morning will be early Saturday when temperatures will fall into the 35 to 39 degree range for most spots with frost likely on those Halloween pumpkins. The colder valleys and protected areas will see a light freeze, most likely.
NEXT WEEK: Another strong short wave will bring the next risk of showers and storms on Tuesday, election day. A little too early to determine if this one will feature a severe weather risk.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We had a great time on this week’s new episode… we will post the show notes shortly.
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I am speaking this morning down in Dadeville at Lake Martin Community Hospital… I will make a quick run back and be in place by midday for the active weather we are expecting this afternoon. Stay tuned to the blog for the latest on the severe weather threat throughout the day…
